Related papers: Pairing an arbitrary regressor with an artificial …

Neural network (NN) interatomic potentials provide fast prediction of potential energy surfaces, closely matching the accuracy of the electronic structure methods used to produce the training data. However, NN predictions are only reliable…

Benchmarking the capabilities of AI systems, including Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision Models, typically ignores the impact of uncertainty in the underlying ground truth answers from experts. This ambiguity is not just limited to…

The performance of deep neural networks improves with more annotated data. The problem is that the budget for annotation is limited. One solution to this is active learning, where a model asks human to annotate data that it perceived as…

The earth system is exceedingly complex and often chaotic in nature, making prediction incredibly challenging: we cannot expect to make perfect predictions all of the time. Instead, we look for specific states of the system that lead to…

Traversability estimation in rugged, unstructured environments remains a challenging problem in field robotics. Often, the need for precise, accurate traversability estimation is in direct opposition to the limited sensing and compute…

Our objective is to estimate the unknown compositional input from its output response through an unknown system after estimating the inverse of the original system with a training set. The proposed methods using artificial neural networks…

Uncertainty quantification in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based predictions of material properties is of immense importance for the success and reliability of AI applications in material science. While confidence intervals are commonly…

Techniques for understanding the functioning of complex machine learning models are becoming increasingly popular, not only to improve the validation process, but also to extract new insights about the data via exploratory analysis. Though…

Deep Learning is a consolidated, state-of-the-art Machine Learning tool to fit a function when provided with large data sets of examples. However, in regression tasks, the straightforward application of Deep Learning models provides a point…

At its core, machine learning seeks to train models that reliably generalize beyond noisy observations; however, the theoretical vacuum in which state-of-the-art universal approximation theorems (UATs) operate isolates them from this goal,…

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret…

The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…

This work studies approximation based on single-hidden-layer feedforward and recurrent neural networks with randomly generated internal weights. These methods, in which only the last layer of weights and a few hyperparameters are optimized,…

Deep learning techniques have been shown to be extremely effective for various classification and regression problems, but quantifying the uncertainty of their predictions and separating them into the epistemic and aleatoric fractions is…

We propose a network architecture capable of reliably estimating uncertainty of regression based predictions without sacrificing accuracy. The current state-of-the-art uncertainty algorithms either fall short of achieving prediction…

As instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) evolve, aligning pretrained foundation models presents increasing challenges. Existing alignment strategies, which typically leverage diverse and high-quality data sources, often overlook…

Uncertainty estimation for unlabeled data is crucial to active learning. With a deep neural network employed as the backbone model, the data selection process is highly challenging due to the potential over-confidence of the model…

The brain prepares for learning even before interacting with the environment, by refining and optimizing its structures through spontaneous neural activity that resembles random noise. However, the mechanism of such a process has yet to be…

The machine learning literature contains several constructions for prediction intervals that are intuitively reasonable but ultimately ad-hoc in that they do not come with provable performance guarantees. We present methods from the…

We present a critical survey on the consistency of uncertainty quantification used in deep learning and highlight partial uncertainty coverage and many inconsistencies. We then provide a comprehensive and statistically consistent framework…