Related papers: Dynamic Semiparametric Models for Expected Shortfa…

In an efficient stock market, the returns and their time-dependent volatility are often jointly modeled by stochastic volatility models (SVMs). Over the last few decades several SVMs have been proposed to adequately capture the defining…

This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over…

Prior work on safe Reinforcement Learning (RL) has studied risk-aversion to randomness in dynamics (aleatory) and to model uncertainty (epistemic) in isolation. We propose and analyze a new framework to jointly model the risk associated…

This report presents a comprehensive evaluation of three Value-at-Risk (VaR) modeling approaches: Historical Simulation (HS), GARCH with Normal approximation (GARCH-N), and GARCH with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), using both…

As evidenced by various recent and significant papers within the frequentist literature, along with numerous applications in macroeconomics, genomics, and neuroscience, there continues to be substantial interest to understand the…

We propose a risk-averse statistical learning framework wherein the performance of a learning algorithm is evaluated by the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of losses rather than the expected loss. We devise algorithms based on stochastic…

We present a computational method for measuring financial risk by estimating the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from financial series. We have made two assumptions: First, that the predictive distributions of the values of an asset…

Modeling the time-varying covariance structures of high-dimensional variables is critical across diverse scientific and industrial applications; however, existing approaches exhibit notable limitations in either modeling flexibility or…

Systemic risk is the risk that a company- or industry-level risk could trigger a huge collapse of another or even the whole institution. Various systemic risk measures have been proposed in the literature to quantify the domino and…

Basel II and Solvency 2 both use the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the risk measure to compute the Capital Requirements. In practice, to calibrate the VaR, a normal approximation is often chosen for the unknown distribution of the yearly log…

Machine learning is vital in high-stakes domains, yet conventional validation methods rely on averaging metrics like mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE), which fail to quantify extreme errors. Worst-case prediction…

Systemic risk is receiving increasing attention in the insurance industry. In this paper, we propose a multi-dimensional L\'{e}vy process-based renewal risk model with heterogeneous insurance claims, where every dimension indicates a…

Risk management is very important for individual investors or companies. There are many ways to measure the risk of investment. Prices of risky assets vary rapidly and randomly due to the complexity of finance market. Random interval is a…

In this paper, we propose the realized Hyperbolic GARCH model for the joint-dynamics of lowfrequency returns and realized measures that generalizes the realized GARCH model of Hansen et al.(2012) as well as the FLoGARCH model introduced by…

It is well known that Expected Shortfall (also called Average Value-at-Risk) is a convex risk measure, i. e. Expected Shortfall of a convex linear combination of arbitrary risk positions is not greater than a convex linear combination with…

The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…

Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…

This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…

This paper compares the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of several models for computing the tail risk of one-month and one-year electricity futures contracts traded in the NordPool, French, German, and Spanish markets in 2008-2017.…