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Evolutionary analyses of large populations commonly incorporate stochasticity through temporal variation in selection while treating genetic transmission as fixed. Much less attention has been given to stochasticity in transmission itself.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-02-24 Elisa Heinrich-Mora , Marcus Feldman

Take a continuous-time Galton-Watson tree. If the system survives until a large time $T$, then choose $k$ particles uniformly from those alive. What does the ancestral tree drawn out by these $k$ particles look like? Some special cases are…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-14 Simon C. Harris , Samuel G. G. Johnston , Matthew I. Roberts

We model and study the genetic evolution and conservation of a population of diploid hermaphroditic organisms, evolving continuously in time and subject to resource competition. In the absence of mutations, the population follows a 3-type…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-07-23 Camille Coron

We first recall some basic facts from the theory of discrete-time Markov chains arising from two types neutral and non-neutral evolution models of population genetics with constant size. We then define and analyse a version of such models…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-03-09 Nicolas Grosjean , Thierry Huillet

We are interested in the long-time behavior of a diploid population with sexual reproduction, characterized by its genotype composition at one bi-allelic locus. The population is modeled by a 3-dimensional birth-and-death process with…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-16 Camille Coron

The paper contains the complete analysis of the Galton-Watson models with immigration, including the processes in the random environment, stationary or non-stationary ones. We also study the branching random walk on $Z^d$ with immigration…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-14 Dan Han , Stanislav Molchanov , Joseph Whitmeyer

We reconsider the deterministic haploid mutation-selection equation with two types. This is an ordinary differential equation that describes the type distribution (forward in time) in a population of infinite size. This paper establishes…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-25 Ellen Baake , Fernando Cordero , Sebastian Hummel

This paper proposes a novel numerical method for computing the density of the limit random variable associated with a supercritical Galton-Watson process. This random variable captures the effect of early demographic fluctuations and…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-08 Alice Cortinovis , Sophie Hautphenne , Stefano Massei

This paper is concerned with an extended Galton-Watson process so as to allow individuals to live and reproduce for more than one unit time. We assume that each individual can live $k$ seasons (time-units) with probability $h_k$, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-29 J. R. Tan , J. P. Li

We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-07-19 George W. A. Constable , Alan J. McKane

We consider a multi-type Moran model (in continuous time) with selection and type-dependent mutation. This paper is concerned with the evolution of genealogical information forward in time. For this purpose we define and analytically…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-19 Peter Seidel

We compute exact values respectively bounds of "distances" - in the sense of (transforms of) power divergences and relative entropy - between two discrete-time Galton-Watson branching processes with immigration GWI for which the offspring…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-21 Niels B. Kammerer , Wolfgang Stummer

Multitype branching processes are ideal for studying the population dynamics of stem cell populations undergoing mutation accumulation over the years following transplant. In such stochastic models, several quantities are of clinical…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-11-17 Timothy C Stutz , Janet S. Sinsheimer , Mary Sehl , Jason Xu

We study an iterated temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of $N$ independent copies of a strongly stationary subcritical Galton-Watson branching process with regularly varying immigration having index $\alpha \in (0, 2)$. Limits of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-09 Matyas Barczy , Fanni K. Nedényi , Gyula Pap

We consider the bifurcating Markov chain model introduced by Guyon to detect cellular aging from cell lineage. To take into account the possibility for a cell to die, we use an underlying Galton-Watson process to describe the evolution of…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-07-08 Jean-François Delmas , Laurence Marsalle

We consider the problem of estimating the elapsed time since the most recent common ancestor of a finite random sample drawn from a population which has evolved through a Bienayme-Galton-Watson branching process. More specifically, we are…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-09-04 Conrad J. Burden , Albert C. Soewongsono

A branching process in a Markovian environment consists of an irreducible Markov chain on a set of "environments" together with an offspring distribution for each environment. At each time step the chain transitions to a new random…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-22 Lila Greco , Lionel Levine

We consider a population with non-overlapping generations, whose size goes to infinity. It is described by a discrete genealogy which may be time non-homogeneous and we pay special attention to branching trees in varying environments. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-22 Vincent Bansaye , Chunmao Huang

Momentum-space representation renders an interesting perspective to theory of large fluctuations in populations undergoing Markovian stochastic gain-loss processes. This representation is obtained when the master equation for the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-18 Michael Assaf , Baruch Meerson , Pavel V. Sasorov

Boundary-catalytic branching processes describe a broad class of natural phenomena where the population of diffusing particles grows due to their spontaneous binary branching (e.g., division, fission or splitting) on a catalytic boundary…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-05 Denis S. Grebenkov , Yilin Ye