Related papers: Likelihood Ratio Gradient Estimation for Steady-St…

We study estimation of a gradient-sparse parameter vector $\boldsymbol{\theta}^* \in \mathbb{R}^p$, having strong gradient-sparsity $s^*:=\|\nabla_G \boldsymbol{\theta}^*\|_0$ on an underlying graph $G$. Given observations $Z_1,\ldots,Z_n$…

In this paper, we consider static parameter estimation for a class of continuous-time state-space models. Our goal is to obtain an unbiased estimate of the gradient of the log-likelihood (score function), which is an estimate that is…

Let $(P_t)$ be the transition semigroup of the Markov family $(X^x(t))$ defined by SDE $$ d X= b(X) dt + d Z, \qquad X(0)=x, $$ where $Z=\left(Z_1, \ldots, Z_d\right)^*$ is a system of independent real-valued L\'evy processes. Using the…

In the paper, the transition probability density of isotropic $\alpha$-stable stochastic process in a finite dimensional Euclidean space is considered. The results of applying pseudo differential operators with respect spatial variables to…

We propose sequential Monte Carlo based algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the static parameters in hidden Markov models with an intractable likelihood using ideas from approximate Bayesian computation. The static parameter…

We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…

Let $\{X_n\}$ be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set ${\cal X}$. Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We propose a sequence of stopping times $\lambda_n$…

In this paper, we present a novel iterative Monte Carlo method for approximating the stationary probability of a single state of a positive recurrent Markov chain. We utilize the characterization that the stationary probability of a state…

Consider a Markov chain $\{X_n\}_{n\ge 0}$ with an ergodic probability measure $\pi$. Let $\Psi$ a function on the state space of the chain, with $\alpha$-tails with respect to $\pi$, $\alpha\in (0,2)$. We find sufficient conditions on the…

Let $(X_n)_{n \in\mathbb{N}}$ be a $V$-geometrically ergodic Markov chain on a measurable space $\mathbb{X}$ with invariant probability distribution $\pi$. In this paper, we propose a discretization scheme providing a computable sequence…

Inhomogeneous phase-type (IPH) distributions extend classical phase-type models by allowing transition intensities to vary over time, offering greater flexibility for modeling heavy-tailed or time-dependent absorption phenomena. We focus on…

An important question in statistical network analysis is how to estimate models of discrete and dependent network data with intractable likelihood functions, without sacrificing computational scalability and statistical guarantees. We…

We study recursive maximum likelihood estimation for stochastic interacting particle systems based on continuous observation of a single particle. In this regime, consistent estimation of the finite-particle log-likelihood is not possible,…

In this paper we study Monte Carlo estimators based on the likelihood ratio approach for steady-state sensitivity. We first extend the result of Glynn and Olvera-Cravioto [doi:doi: 10.1287/stsy.2018.002] to the setting of continuous time…

We present quantum algorithms for sampling from non-logconcave probability distributions in the form of $\pi(x) \propto \exp(-\beta f(x))$. Here, $f$ can be written as a finite sum $f(x):= \frac{1}{N}\sum_{k=1}^N f_k(x)$. Our approach is…

The spectral gap $\gamma$ of an ergodic and reversible Markov chain is an important parameter measuring the asymptotic rate of convergence. In applications, the transition matrix $P$ may be unknown, yet one sample of the chain up to a fixed…

Let $(M,d,\mu)$ be a uniformly discrete metric measure space satisfying space homogeneous volume doubling condition. We consider discrete time Markov chains on $M$ symmetric with respect to $\mu$ and whose one-step transition density is…

We prove the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of a general conditionally heteroscedastic model with $\alpha$-stable innovations. Then, we relax the assumptions and only…

In this paper, we propose a method based on GMM (the generalized method of moments) to estimate the parameters of stable distributions with $0<\alpha<2$. We don't assume symmetry for stable distributions.

We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…