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Shapley values are extensively used in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) as a framework to explain predictions made by complex machine learning (ML) models. In this work, we focus on conditional Shapley values for predictive models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-07 Lars Henry Berge Olsen

We propose a novel definition of Shapley values with uncertain value functions based on first principles using probability theory. Such uncertain value functions can arise in the context of explainable machine learning as a result of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-03 Raoul Heese , Sascha Mücke , Matthias Jakobs , Thore Gerlach , Nico Piatkowski

Development of new multiscale mathematical models often entails considerable complexity and multiple undetermined parameters, typically arising from closure relations. To enable reliable simulations, one must quantify how uncertain physical…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Linheng Ruan , Ilja Kröker , Sergey Oladyshkin , Iryna Rybak

Attribution scores can be applied in data management to quantify the contribution of individual items to conclusions from the data, as part of the explanation of what led to these conclusions. In Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning,…

Databases · Computer Science 2024-01-15 Leopoldo Bertossi , Benny Kimelfeld , Ester Livshits , Mikaël Monet

Sensitivity analyses of simulation ensembles determine how simulation parameters influence the simulation's outcome. Commonly, one global numerical sensitivity value is computed per simulation parameter. However, when considering 3D spatial…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Marina Evers , Simon Leistikow , Hennes Rave , Lars Linsen

While Shapley Values (SV) are one of the gold standard for interpreting machine learning models, we show that they are still poorly understood, in particular in the presence of categorical variables or of variables of low importance. For…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-07 Salim I. Amoukou , Nicolas J-B. Brunel , Tangi Salaün

Explaining AI systems is fundamental both to the development of high performing models and to the trust placed in them by their users. The Shapley framework for explainability has strength in its general applicability combined with its…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-21 Christopher Frye , Colin Rowat , Ilya Feige

Shapley values are widely used for model-agnostic data valuation and feature attribution, yet they implicitly assume contributors are interchangeable. This can be problematic when contributors are dependent (e.g., reused/augmented data or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Kiljae Lee , Ziqi Liu , Weijing Tang , Yuan Zhang

Changes in input distribution can induce shifts in the average predictions of machine learning models. Such prediction shifts may impact downstream business outcomes (e.g. a bank's loan approval rate), so understanding their causes can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Tom Bewley , Salim I. Amoukou , Emanuele Albini , Saumitra Mishra , Manuela Veloso

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) aims at quantifying the contribution of input variables over the variability of model outputs. In the frame of functional outputs, a common goal is to compute sensitivity maps (SM), i.e sensitivity indices…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-12-12 Yuri Sao , Olivier Roustant , Geraldo de Freitas Maciel

Gaussian copulas are widely used in the industry to correlate two random variables when there is no prior knowledge about the co-dependence between them. The perturbed Gaussian copula approach allows introducing the skew information of both…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-02-10 Alberto Elices , Jean-Pierre Fouque

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of numerical simulators aims at studying the global impact of the input uncertainties on the output. To perform the GSA, statistical tools based on inputs/output dependence measures are commonly used. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-20 Anouar Meynaoui , Amandine Marrel , Béatrice Laurent

Contemporary predictive models are hard to interpret as their deep nets exploit numerous complex relations between input elements. This work suggests a theoretical framework for model interpretability by measuring the contribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-15 Itai Gat , Nitay Calderon , Roi Reichart , Tamir Hazan

We propose a new importance sampling framework for the estimation and analysis of Sobol' indices. We focus on the estimation of the conditional second-moment quantity underlying these indices, which is the most challenging term to estimate.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Haythem Boucharif , Jérôme Morio , Paul Rochet

Explainability in AI is crucial for model development, compliance with regulation, and providing operational nuance to predictions. The Shapley framework for explainability attributes a model's predictions to its input features in a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-21 Christopher Frye , Damien de Mijolla , Tom Begley , Laurence Cowton , Megan Stanley , Ilya Feige

Multi-label classification is a type of classification task, it is used when there are two or more classes, and the data point we want to predict may belong to none of the classes or all of them at the same time. In the real world, many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-26 Shikun Chen

Feature selection is a classical problem in statistics and machine learning, and it continues to remain an extremely challenging problem especially in the context of unknown non-linear relationships with dependent features. On the other…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-17 Chenghui Zheng , Garvesh Raskutti

There is much interest lately in explainability in statistics and machine learning. One aspect of explainability is to quantify the importance of various features (or covariates). Two popular methods for defining variable importance are…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-13 Isabella Verdinelli , Larry Wasserman

The SHAP (short for Shapley additive explanation) framework has become an essential tool for attributing importance to variables in predictive tasks. In model-agnostic settings, SHAP uses the concept of Shapley values from cooperative game…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-12 Justin Whitehouse , Ayush Sawarni , Vasilis Syrgkanis

One-dimensional Poincare inequalities are used in Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to provide derivative-based upper bounds and approximations of Sobol indices. We add new perspectives by investigating weighted Poincare inequalities. Our…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-09 David Heredia , Aldéric Joulin , Olivier Roustant