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We present a robust safety-critical control framework tailored for networked susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic dynamics, leveraging control barrier functions (CBFs) and robust control barrier functions to address the challenges…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-03 Saba Samadi , Brooks A. Butler , Philip E. Paré

Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-03-12 Afroza Shirin , Yen Ting Lin , Francesco Sorrentino

Social distancing has been the only effective way to contain the spread of an infectious disease prior to the availability of the pharmaceutical treatment. It can lower the infection rate of the disease at the economic cost. A pandemic…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-07 Kexin Chen , Chi Seng Pun , Hoi Ying Wong

We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-10 Anatoly Zhigljavsky , Roger Whitaker , Ivan Fesenko , Kobi Kremnizer , Jack Noonan

This paper investigates a behavioral-feedback SIR model in which the infection rate adapts dynamically based on the fractions of susceptible and infected individuals. We introduce an invariant of motion and we characterize the peak of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-17 Martina Alutto , Leonardo Cianfanelli , Giacomo Como , Fabio Fagnani , Francesca Parise

The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-12-01 Anca Radulescu , Cassandra Williams , Kieran Cavanagh

This study focuses on investigating the manner in which a prompt quarantine measure suppresses epidemics in networks. A simple and ideal quarantine measure is considered in which an individual is detected with a probability immediately…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-08-16 Takehisa Hasegawa , Koji Nemoto

We establish sufficient conditions for the terminal cost and constraint such that economic model predictive control (MPC) is robustly recursively feasible and economically robust to small disturbances without any assumptions of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-29 Robert D. McAllister

To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…

In this paper, we address a social planner's optimal control problem for a partially observable stochastic epidemic model. The control measures include social distancing, testing, and vaccination. Using a diffusion approximation for the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Ibrahim Mbouandi Njiasse , Florent Ouabo Kamkumo , Ralf Wunderlich

This paper considers risk-sensitive model predictive control for stochastic systems with a decision-dependent distribution. This class of systems is commonly found in human-robot interaction scenarios. We derive computationally tractable…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-02 Renzi Wang , Mathijs Schuurmans , Panagiotis Patrinos

We study the impact of parameter estimation and state measurement errors on a control framework for optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-08 Baike She , Lei Xin , Shreyas Sundaram , Philip E. Paré

In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-08-27 Javier Aguilar , Beatriz Arregui García , Raúl Toral , Sandro Meloni , Jose J. Ramasco

This paper proposes a feedback design that effectively copes with uncertainties for reliable epidemic monitoring and control. There are several optimization-based methods to estimate the parameters of an epidemic model by utilizing past…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-06 Muhammad Umar B. Niazi , Philip E. Paré , Karl H. Johansson

We consider the effects of noise on a model of epidemic outbreaks, where the outbreaks appear. randomly. Using a constructive transition approach that predicts large outbreaks, prior to their occurrence, we derive an adaptive control.…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-11 I. B. Schwartz , L. Billings , E. M. Bollt

Traditionally, the identification of parameters in the formulation and solution of inverse problems considers that models, variables and mathematical parameters are free of uncertainties. This aspect simplifies the estimation process, but…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-02 Gustavo Barbosa Libotte , Fran Sérgio Lobato , Gustavo Mendes Platt

Knowledge on the dynamics of standard epidemic models and their variants over complex networks has been well-established primarily in the stationary regime, with relatively little light shed on their transient behavior. In this paper, we…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-12-19 Aresh Dadlani , Muthukrishnan Senthil Kumar , Kiseon Kim , Faryad Darabi Sahneh

The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-07 Omar Melikechi , Alexander L. Young , Tao Tang , Trevor Bowman , David Dunson , James Johndrow

In the context of epidemiology, policies for disease control are often devised through a mixture of intuition and brute-force, whereby the set of logically conceivable policies is narrowed down to a small family described by a few…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-10-04 Miguel Navascues , Costantino Budroni , Yelena Guryanova

Malware attacks in today's vast digital ecosystem pose a serious threat. Understanding malware propagation dynamics and designing effective control strategies are therefore essential. In this work, we propose a generic SEIRV model…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Samiran Ghosh , V Anil Kumar