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We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model. Through the use of a normal form coordinate transform, we are able to analytically derive the stochastic center manifold along with the…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2015-05-13 Eric Forgoston , Lora Billings , Ira B. Schwartz

We approach the development of models and control strategies of susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic processes from the perspective of marked temporal point processes and stochastic optimal control of stochastic differential…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-12-04 Lars Lorch , Abir De , Samir Bhatt , William Trouleau , Utkarsh Upadhyay , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic economic model predictive control (SEMPC) that minimizes average economic cost while satisfying an empirical expected shortfall (EES) constraint to manage risk. A new scenario-based problem…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-31 Alireza Arastou , Algo Carè , Ye Wang , Marco Campi , Erik Weyer

Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-24 Sam A. Whitaker , Andrew Golightly , Colin S. Gillespie , Theodore Kypraios

In this paper we propose a novel SEIR stochastic epidemic model. A distinguishing feature of this new model is that it allows us to consider a set up under general latency and infectious period distributions. To some extent, queuing systems…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-06-29 Edilson F. Arruda , Rodrigo e Alvim Alexandre , Marcelo D. Fragoso , João B. R. do val , Sinnu S. Thomas

We study the problem of optimal control of the stochastic SIR model. Models of this type are used in mathematical epidemiology to capture the time evolution of highly infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Our approach relies on…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-04 Andrew Lesniewski

We develop a feedback control method for networked epidemic spreading processes. In contrast to most prior works which consider mean field, open-loop control schemes, the present work develops a novel framework for feedback control of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-03-23 Nicholas J. Watkins , Cameron Nowzari , George J. Pappas

The optimal control of epidemic-like stochastic processes is important both historically and for emerging applications today, where it can be especially important to include time-varying parameters that impact viral epidemic-like…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-10-02 Yingdong Lu , Mark S. Squillante , Chai Wah Wu

We tackle limitations of ordinary differential equation-driven Susceptible-Infections-Removed (SIR) models and their extensions that have recently be employed for epidemic nowcasting and forecasting. In particular, we deal with challenges…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-10 Angelos Alexopoulos , Paul Birrell , Daniela De Angelis

In this paper we consider a stochastic SEIQR (susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered) epidemic model with a generalized incidence function. Using the Lyapunov method, we establish the existence and uniqueness of a global…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-31 Brahim Boukanjime , Mohamed Maama

This work focuses on optimal controls of a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models under regime switching. By assuming that a decision maker can either influence the infectivity period or isolate infected individuals, our aim is to minimize…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-12 Ky Tran , George Yin

This paper presents a new concept of controlled dissipativity as an extension of the standard dissipativity property to systems with parameter-varying storage functions under the framework of economic model predictive control (EMPC). Based…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-02-22 Zihang Dong , David Angeli , Goran Strbac

In this research, we develop a framework to analyze the interaction between the economy and the Covid-19 pandemic using an extension of SIR epidemic model. At the outset, we assume there are two health related investments including general…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-02-14 Zachariah Sinkala , Vajira Manathunga , Bichaka Fayissa

In this paper, we investigate the problem of designing event-triggered controllers for containing epidemic processes in complex networks. We focus on a deterministic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model, which is one of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-03 Kazumune Hashimoto , Yuga Onoue , Masaki Ogura , Toshimitsu Ushio

In this paper, a stochastic SEQIR epidemic model with Markovian regime-switching is proposed and investigated. The governmental policy and implement efficiency are concerned by a generalized incidence function of the susceptible class. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-27 Hongjie Fan , Kai Wang , Yanling Zhu

In this article, we construct a numerical method for a stochastic version of the Susceptible Infected Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model, expressed by a suitable stochastic differential equation (SDE), by using the semi-discrete method to a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-07-28 Yiannis Kiouvrekis , Ioannis S. Stamatiou

We propose a model predictive control (MPC) approach for minimising the social distancing and quarantine measures during a pandemic while maintaining a hard infection cap. To this end, we study the admissible and the maximal robust…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-05-05 Philipp Sauerteig , Willem Esterhuizen , Mitsuru Wilson , Tobias K. S. Ritschel , Karl Worthmann , Stefan Streif

This contribution mainly focuses on the finite horizon optimal control problems of a susceptible-infected-vaccinated(SIV) epidemic system governed by reaction-diffusion equations and Markov switching. Stochastic dynamic programming is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-23 Zong Wang

This paper presents a robust economic model predictive control (EMPC) formulation with zone tracking for discrete-time uncertain nonlinear systems. The proposed design ensures that the zone tracking objective is achieved in finite steps and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-09-22 Benjamin Decardi-Nelson , Jinfeng Liu

We present a data-driven optimal control approach which integrates the reported partial data with the epidemic dynamics for COVID-19. We use a basic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, the model parameters are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-22 Hailiang Liu , Xuping Tian
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