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As the size of engineered systems grows, problems in reliability theory can become computationally challenging, often due to the combinatorial growth in the cut sets. In this paper we demonstrate how Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) - a…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-14 Louis J. M. Aslett , Tigran Nagapetyan , Sebastian J. Vollmer

We study time harmonic acoustic scattering on large deviation rough random scatterers. Therein, the roughness of the scatterers is caused by a low Sobolev regularity in the covariance function of their deformation field. The motivation for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-11-22 Jürgen Dölz , Wei Huang , Michael Multerer

We study an optimal control problem under uncertainty, where the target function is the solution of an elliptic partial differential equation with random coefficients, steered by a control function. The robust formulation of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-23 Philipp A. Guth , Vesa Kaarnioja , Frances Y. Kuo , Claudia Schillings , Ian H. Sloan

We consider the numerical solution of scalar, nonlinear degenerate convection-diffusion problems with random diffusion coefficient and with random flux functions. Building on recent results on the existence, uniqueness and continuous…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2013-11-08 U. Koley , N. H. Risebro , Ch. Schwab , F. Weber

In traffic flow modeling, incorporating uncertainty is crucial for accurately capturing the complexities of real-world scenarios. In this work we focus on kinetic models of traffic flow, where a key step is to design effective numerical…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Elisa Iacomini , Lorenzo Pareschi

We present a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the uncertainty quantification of variably saturated porous media flow that are modeled using the Richards' equation. We propose a stochastic extension for the empirical models that are…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-03-22 Prashant Kumar , Carmen Rodrigo , Francisco J. Gaspar , Cornelis W. Oosterlee

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models, combining model computations at different levels…

Mathematical Software · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Santiago Badia , Jerrad Hampton , Javier Principe

Mathematical models are essential for understanding and making predictions about systems arising in nature and engineering. Yet, mathematical models are a simplification of true phenomena, thus making predictions subject to uncertainty.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-03 Mark Hobbs , Hussein Rappel , Tim Dodwell

Fast and accurate predictions of uncertainties in the computed dose are crucial for the determination of robust treatment plans in radiation therapy. This requires the solution of particle transport problems with uncertain parameters or…

Medical Physics · Physics 2022-11-09 Pia Stammer , Lucas Burigo , Oliver Jäkel , Martin Frank , Niklas Wahl

While generally considered computationally expensive, Uncertainty Quantification using Monte Carlo sampling remains beneficial for applications with uncertainties of high dimension. As an extension of the naive Monte Carlo method, the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Robert Hahn , Sebastian Schöps

While multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for the numerical approximation of partial differential equations with random coefficients enjoy great popularity, combinations with spatial adaptivity seem to be rare. We present an adaptive MLMC…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-12-20 Ralf Kornhuber , Evgenia Youett

This position paper summarizes a recently developed research program focused on inference in the context of data centric science and engineering applications, and forecasts its trajectory forward over the next decade. Often one endeavours…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-06 Ajay Jasra , Kody J. H. Law , Alexander Tarakanov , Fangyuan Yu

Practical structural engineering problems often exhibit a significant degree of uncertainty in the material properties being used, the dimensions of the modeled structures, etc. In this paper, we consider a cantilever beam and a beam…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2018-09-03 Philippe Blondeel , Pieterjan Robbe , Cédric van hoorickx , Geert Lombaert , Stefan Vandewalle

In many real-world engineering systems, the performance or reliability of the system is characterised by a scalar parameter. The distribution of this performance parameter is important in many uncertainty quantification problems, ranging…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-03 Robert Millar , Jinglai Li , Hui Li

Probabilistic prediction of sequences from images and other high-dimensional data is a key challenge, particularly in risk-sensitive applications. In these settings, it is often desirable to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Qidong Yang , Weicheng Zhu , Joseph Keslin , Laure Zanna , Tim G. J. Rudner , Carlos Fernandez-Granda

An algorithm is proposed to solve robust control problems constrained by partial differential equations with uncertain coefficients, based on the so-called MG/OPT framework. The levels in this MG/OPT hierarchy correspond to discretization…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Andreas Van Barel , Stefan Vandewalle

We quantify uncertainties in the location and magnitude of extreme pressure spots revealed from large scale multi-phase flow simulations of cloud cavitation collapse. We examine clouds containing 500 cavities and quantify uncertainties…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2017-11-09 Jonas Šukys , Ursula Rasthofer , Fabian Wermelinger , Panagiotis Hadjidoukas , Petros Koumoutsakos

We propose a novel $hp$-multilevel Monte Carlo method for the quantification of uncertainties in the compressible Navier-Stokes equations, using the Discontinuous Galerkin method as deterministic solver. The multilevel approach exploits…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-25 A. Beck , J. Dürrwächter , T. Kuhn , F. Meyer , C. -D. Munz , C. Rohde

We present a novel approach aimed at high-performance uncertainty quantification for time-dependent problems governed by partial differential equations. In particular, we consider input uncertainties described by a Karhunen-Loeeve expansion…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Seif Ben Bader , Pietro Benedusi , Alessio Quaglino , Patrick Zulian , Rolf Krause

Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods rely on a hierarchy of possibly less accurate but statistically correlated simplified or reduced models, in order to accelerate the estimation of statistics of high-fidelity models without compromising the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-10-29 Alessio Quaglino , Simone Pezzuto , Rolf Krause