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Related papers: A note on critical Hawkes processes

200 papers

Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Maya Sadeler Perrin , Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Adeline Samson

In this paper, we study a discrete-time analogue of a Hawkes process, modelled as a Poisson autoregressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. The model is characterized to allow these parameters to take negative…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-04 Manon Costa , Pascal Maillard , Anthony Muraro

In this paper, we establish the asymptotic behavior of {\it supercritical} nearly unstable Hawkes processes with a power law kernel. We find that, the Hawkes process in our context admits a similar equation to that in \cite{MR3563196} for…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-25 Liping Xu , An Zhang

We introduce a simple technique for proving the transience of certain processes defined on the random tree $\mathcal{G}$ generated by a supercritical branching process. We prove the transience for once-reinforced random walks on…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Andrea Collevecchio

We study branching processes in an i.i.d. random environment, where the associated random walk is of the oscillating type. This class of processes generalizes the classical notion of criticality. The main properties of such branching…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 V. I. Afanasyev , J. Geiger , G. Kersting , V. A. Vatutin

The Hawkes process is a simple point process that has long memory, clustering effect, self-exciting property and is in general non-Markovian. The future evolution of a self-exciting point process is influenced by the timing of the past…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-25 Lingjiong Zhu

Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Minju Jo , Seungji Kook , Noseong Park

Due to its clustering and self-exciting properties, the Hawkes process has been used extensively in numerous fields ranging from sismology to finance. Since data is often aquired on regular time intervals, we propose a piece-wise constant…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-28 Lorick Huang , Mahmoud Khabou

Let $\mathcal{T}$ be a supercritical Galton-Watson tree with a bounded offspring distribution that has mean $\mu >1$, conditioned to survive. Let $\varphi_{\mathcal{T}}$ be a random embedding of $\mathcal{T}$ into $\mathbb{Z}^d$ according…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-14 Remco van der Hofstad , Tim Hulshof , Jan Nagel

A Hawkes process on $\R$ is a point process whose intensity function at time $t$ is a functional of its past activity before time $t$. It is defined by its activation function $\Phi$ and its memory function $h$. In this paper, the Hawkes…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-05 Philippe Robert , Gaëtan Vignoud

Across a wide variety of applications, the self-exciting Hawkes process has been used to model phenomena in which the history of events influences future occurrences. However, there may be many situations in which the past events only…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-12 Andrew Daw , Jamol Pender

In this article, we consider a Branching Random Walk on the real line. The genealogical structure is assumed to be given through a supercritical branching process in the i.i.d. environment and satisfies the Kesten-Stigum condition. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-02 Ayan Bhattacharya , Zbigniew Palmowski

We consider three kinds of discrete-time arrival processes: transient, intermediate and recurrent, characterized by a finite, possibly finite and infinite number of events, respectively. In this context, we study renewal processes which are…

The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-04 Behzad Mehrdad , Lingjiong Zhu

In a discrete-time setting, we consider an arrival process $\left\{\xi_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots \right\}$, which models the occurrence of events, and a corresponding point process $\left\{H_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Utpal Jyoti Deba Sarma , Dharmaraja Selvamuthu

We study a branching random walk with independent and identically distributed, heavy tailed displacements. The offspring law is supercritical and satisfies the Kesten-Stigum condition. We treat the case when the law of the displacements…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-30 Ayan Bhattacharya , Piotr Dyszewski , Nina Gantert , Zbigniew Palmowski

As a model of trapping by biased motion in random structure, we study the time taken for a biased random walk to return to the root of a subcritical Galton-Watson tree. We do so for trees in which these biases are randomly chosen,…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-01-24 Gerard Ben Arous , Alan Hammond

Let $\left\{ S_{n},n\geq 0\right\} $ be a random walk whose increment distribution belongs without centering to the domain of attraction of an $% \alpha $-stable law, i.e., there are some scaling constants $a_{n}$ such that the sequence…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-19 Congzao Dong , Elena Dyakonova , Vladimir Vatutin

We construct extensions of the pure-jump $\Lambda$-Wright-Fisher processes with frequency-dependent selection ($\Lambda$-WF processes with selection) beyond their first passage time at the boundary $1$. We show that they satisfy some…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-17 Clément Foucart , Xiaowen Zhou

Starting with a percolation model in $\Z^d$ in the subcritical regime, we consider a random walk described as follows: the probability of transition from $x$ to $y$ is proportional to some function $f$ of the size of the cluster of $y$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-31 Serguei Popov , Marina Vachkovskaia