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An overview is presented of a general theory of statistical inference that is referred to as the fiducial-Bayes fusion. This theory combines organic fiducial inference and Bayesian inference. The aim is that the reader is given a clear…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2023-10-04 Russell J. Bowater

In the past two decades, there has been a fast-growing literature on fiducial inference since it was first proposed by R. A. Fisher in the 1930s. However, most of the fiducial inference based methods and related approaches have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-03 Yifan Cui , Jan Hannig

Confidence limits are common place in physics analysis. Great care must be taken in their calculation and use, especially in cases of limited statistics when often one-sided limits are quoted. In order to estimate the stability of the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Rajendran Raja

A very simple example demonstrates that Fisher's application of the conditionality principle to regression ("fixed-$x$ regression"), endorsed by Sprott and many other followers, makes prediction impossible in the context of statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Vladimir Vovk

Fisher's likelihood is widely used for statistical inference for fixed unknowns. This paper aims to extend two important likelihood-based methods, namely the maximum likelihood procedure for point estimation and the confidence procedure for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-03 Hangbin Lee , Youngjo Lee

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-02 David R. Bickel

In this article, we review selective inference, a set of techniques for inference when the statistical question asked is a function of the data. This setting often arises in contemporary scientific workflows, where hypotheses and parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Anna Neufeld , Ronan Perry , Daniela Witten

We formalize the idea of probability distributions that lead to reliable predictions about some, but not all aspects of a domain. The resulting notion of `safety' provides a fresh perspective on foundational issues in statistics, providing…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-08 Peter Grünwald

In many statistical applications that concern mathematical psychologists, the concept of Fisher information plays an important role. In this tutorial we clarify the concept of Fisher information as it manifests itself across three different…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-18 Alexander Ly , Maarten Marsman , Josine Verhagen , Raoul Grasman , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

Under standard regularity assumptions, we provide simple approximations for specific classes of fiducial and confidence distributions and discuss their connections with objective Bayesian posteriors. For a real parameter the approximations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-18 Piero Veronese , Eugenio Melilli

This paper introduces to readers the new concept and methodology of confidence distribution and the modern-day distributional inference in statistics. This discussion should be of interest to people who would like to go into the depth of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-07 Yifan Cui , Min-ge Xie

This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-02-11 Christian P. Robert , Jean-Michel Marin , Judith Rousseau

Since its introduction by Fisher, the method of hypothesis testing that relies on computing error probabilities has witnessed several developments. Perhaps the most significant development was the seminal contributions of Neyman and Pearson…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2026-05-08 Reason Machete

A principle is modified that underlies the theory of organic fiducial inference as this theory was presented in an earlier paper. This modification, which is arguably a natural one to make, allows Bayesian inference to sometimes have a…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2021-11-18 Russell J. Bowater

We consider the problem of parameter estimation in a Bayesian setting and propose a general lower-bound that includes part of the family of $f$-Divergences. The results are then applied to specific settings of interest and compared to other…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-05-19 Adrien Vandenbroucque , Amedeo Roberto Esposito , Michael Gastpar

Fiducial Inference, introduced by Fisher in the 1930s, has a long history, which at times aroused passionate disagreements. However, its application has been largely confined to relatively simple parametric problems. In this paper, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-28 Yifan Cui , Jan Hannig

Our interest is whether two binomial parameters differ, which parameter is larger, and by how much. This apparently simple problem was addressed by Fisher in the 1930's, and has been the subject of many review papers since then. Yet there…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-20 Michael P. Fay , Sally A. Hunsberger

Especially when facing reliability data with limited information (e.g., a small number of failures), there are strong motivations for using Bayesian inference methods. These include the option to use information from physics-of-failure or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-27 Qinglong Tian , Colin Lewis-Beck , Jarad Niemi , William Meeker

This monograph is an account of the theory of fallible probability and of the dynamics of degrees of belief. It discusses the first order subjective theory in which first order degrees of belief are expressed by subjective probabilities and…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-03-06 Amos Nathan

The article by Hawila & Berg (2023) that is going to be commented presents four relevant problems, apart from other less important ones that are also cited. First, the title is incorrect, since it leads readers to believe that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-15 A. Martín Andrés , I. Herranz Tejedor