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Conditionality principle under unconstrained randomness

Statistics Theory 2025-03-11 v2 Methodology Statistics Theory

Abstract

A very simple example demonstrates that Fisher's application of the conditionality principle to regression ("fixed-xx regression"), endorsed by Sprott and many other followers, makes prediction impossible in the context of statistical learning theory. On the other hand, relaxing the requirement of conditionality makes it possible via, e.g., conformal prediction.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2402.04859,
  title  = {Conditionality principle under unconstrained randomness},
  author = {Vladimir Vovk},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2402.04859},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

7 pages

R2 v1 2026-06-28T14:41:34.991Z