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Community detection can be considered as a variant of cluster analysis applied to complex networks. For this reason, all existing studies have been using tools derived from this field when evaluating community detection algorithms. However,…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-05-18 Vincent Labatut

Using particle system methodologies we study the propagation of financial distress in a network of firms facing credit risk. We investigate the phenomenon of a credit crisis and quantify the losses that a bank may suffer in a large credit…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2009-03-04 Paolo Dai Pra , Wolfgang J. Runggaldier , Elena Sartori , Marco Tolotti

The stability of a complex financial system may be assessed by measuring risk contagion between various financial institutions with relatively high exposure. We consider a financial network model using a bipartite graph of financial…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-23 Bikramjit Das , Vicky Fasen-Hartmann

The predominant method for evaluating the quality of causal models is to measure the graphical accuracy of the learned model structure. We present an alternative method for evaluating causal models that directly measures the accuracy of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-08-17 Dan Garant , David Jensen

In recent years, a CRA (Credit Risk Analysis) quantum algorithm with a quadratic speedup over classical analogous methods has been introduced. We propose a new variant of this quantum algorithm with the intent of overcoming some of the most…

Emerging Technologies · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Emanuele Dri , Edoardo Giusto , Antonello Aita , Bartolomeo Montrucchio

System reliability analysis aims at computing the probability of failure of an engineering system given a set of uncertain inputs and limit state functions. Active-learning solution schemes have been shown to be a viable tool but as of yet…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-10 Maliki Moustapha , Pietro Parisi , Stefano Marelli , Bruno Sudret

Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), the use of stress tests as a tool for assessing the resilience of financial institutions to adverse financial and economic developments has increased significantly. One key part in such exercises is…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-08 Martin Guth

The vast majority of strategies aimed at controlling contagion processes on networks considers the connectivity pattern of the system as either quenched or annealed. However, in the real world many networks are highly dynamical and evolve…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-17 Suyu Liu , Nicola Perra , Marton Karsai , Alessandro Vespignani

Tremendous advances have been made in our understanding of the properties and evolution of complex networks. These advances were initially driven by information-poor empirical networks and theoretical analysis of unweighted and undirected…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-03-17 Luiz G. A. Alves , Alberto Aleta , Francisco A. Rodrigues , Yamir Moreno , Luis A. Nunes Amaral

Two versions of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model, which have different transmission rules, are analysed. Both models are considered on a weighted network to simulate a mitigation in the connection between the individuals.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-02-10 C. Dias , M. O. Hase

Ensuring robust model performance in diverse real-world scenarios requires addressing generalizability across domains with covariate shifts. However, no formal procedure exists for statistically evaluating generalizability in machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Daniel de Vassimon Manela , Linying Yang , Robin J. Evans

Complex networks are ubiquitous to several Computer Science domains. Centrality measures are an important analysis mechanism to uncover vital elements of complex networks. However, these metrics have high computational costs and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-30 Felipe Grando , Lisando Z. Granville , Luis C. Lamb

In classical contagion models, default systems are Markovian conditionally on the observation of their stochastic environment, with interacting intensities. This necessitates that the environment evolves autonomously and is not influenced…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-01 Delia Coculescu , Gabriele Visentin

The ongoing concern about systemic risk since the outburst of the global financial crisis has highlighted the need for risk measures at the level of sets of interconnected financial components, such as portfolios, institutions or members of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-03-24 Yannick Armenti , Stephane Crepey , Samuel Drapeau , Antonis Papapantoleon

Randomized controlled trials (RCT's) allow researchers to estimate causal effects in an experimental sample with minimal identifying assumptions. However, to generalize or transport a causal effect from an RCT to a target population,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-08 Melody Huang

Ordinary differential equations obtained as limits of Markov processes appear in many settings. They may arise by scaling large systems, or by averaging rapidly fluctuating systems, or in systems involving multiple time-scales, by a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-24 Hye-Won Kang , Thomas G. Kurtz , Lea Popovic

Traditional measures of closeness and betweenness centrality in networks rely on the shortest paths between nodes. Many standard metrics fail to accurately reflect the physical or probabilistic characteristics of nodal centrality and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Juuso Luhtala , Vesa Kuikka , Kimmo K. Kaski

Within the framework of maximum entropy principle we show that the finite-size long-range Ising model is the adequate model for the description of homogeneous credit portfolios and the computation of credit risk when default correlations…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2016-08-31 Jordi Molins , Eduard Vives

Network service providers and customers are often concerned with aggregate performance measures that span multiple network paths. Unfortunately, forming such network-wide measures can be difficult, due to the issues of scale involved. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 David B. Chua , Eric D. Kolaczyk , Mark Crovella

The rate of adoption of new information depends on reinforcement from multiple sources in a way that often cannot be described by simple contagion processes. In such cases, contagion is said to be complex. Complex contagion happens in the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-06-21 Vítor V. Vasconcelos , Simon A. Levin , Flávio L. Pinheiro