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Binomial trees are widely used in the financial sector for valuing securities with early exercise characteristics, such as American stock options. However, while effective in many scenarios, pricing options with CRR binomial trees are…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-28 Yury Lebedev , Arunava Banerjee

Cramer's theorem provides an estimate for the tail probability of the maximum of a random walk with negative drift and increments having a moment generating function finite in a neighborhood of the origin. The class of (g,F)-processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-11-24 Ph. Barbe , W. P. McCormick

We consider linear structural equation models that are associated with mixed graphs. The structural equations in these models only involve observed variables, but their idiosyncratic error terms are allowed to be correlated and…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-10 Y. Samuel Wang , Mathias Drton

Computing smoothing distributions, the distributions of one or more states conditional on past, present, and future observations is a recurring problem when operating on general hidden Markov models. The aim of this paper is to provide a…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-15 Randal Douc , Aurélien Garivier , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson

This paper investigates regularized estimation of Kronecker-structured covariance matrices (CM) for polarization radar in sea clutter scenarios where the data are assumed to follow the complex, elliptically symmetric (CES) distributions…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-08 Lei Xie , Zishu He , Jun Tong , Tianle Liu , Jun Li , Jiangtao Xi

Parallel tempering (PT) methods are a popular class of Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes used to sample complex high-dimensional probability distributions. They rely on a collection of $N$ interacting auxiliary chains targeting tempered…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-28 Saifuddin Syed , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

A regularized version of Mixture Models is proposed to learn a principal graph from a distribution of $D$-dimensional data points. In the particular case of manifold learning for ridge detection, we assume that the underlying manifold can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Tony Bonnaire , Aurélien Decelle , Nabila Aghanim

Stein's method (Stein, 1973; 1981) is a powerful tool for statistical applications and has significantly impacted machine learning. Stein's lemma plays an essential role in Stein's method. Previous applications of Stein's lemma either…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-04 Wu Lin , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Mark Schmidt

We characterize the complex, heavy-tailed probability distribution functions (pdf) describing the response and its local extrema for structural systems subjected to random forcing that includes extreme events. Our approach is based on the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-06-02 Han Kyul Joo , Mustafa A. Mohamad , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

The probability distribution of sums of iterates of the logistic map at the edge of chaos has been recently shown [see U. Tirnakli, C. Beck and C. Tsallis, Phys. Rev. E 75, 040106(R) (2007)] to be numerically consistent with a q-Gaussian,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-13 Ugur Tirnakli , Constantino Tsallis , Christian Beck

In this paper, we investigate the convergence order in probability of a novel ergodic numerical scheme for damped stochastic nonlinear Schr\"{o}dinger equation with an additive noise. Theoretical analysis shows that our scheme is of order…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-11-29 Jialin Hong , Lihai Ji , Xu Wang

A weighted likelihood technique for robust estimation of a multivariate Wrapped Normal distribution for data points scattered on a p-dimensional torus is proposed. The occurrence of outliers in the sample at hand can badly compromise…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-01 Giovanni Saraceno , Claudio Agostinelli , Luca Greco

We generalize Huberman-Rudnick universal scaling law for all periodic windows of the logistic map and show the robustness of $q$-Gaussian probability distributions in the vicinity of chaos threshold. Our scaling relation is universal for…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-06-12 Ozgur Afsar , Ugur Tirnakli

In this note, we study the ultimate ruin probabilities of a real-valued L{\'e}vy process X with light-tailed negative jumps. It is well-known that, for such L{\'e}vy processes, the probability of ruin decreases as an exponential function…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-26 Jérôme Spielmann

In this note we find a formula for the supremum distribution of spectrally positive or negative L\'evy processes with a broken linear drift. This gives formulas for ruin probabilities in the case when two insurance companies (or two…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-01 Zbigniew Michna

This is an extended version of the paper Lee and McLachlan (2014b) with simulations and applications added. This paper introduces a finite mixture of canonical fundamental skew t (CFUST) distributions for a model-based approach to…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-06 Sharon X. Lee , Geoffrey J. McLachlan

Ensemble randomized maximum likelihood (EnRML) is an iterative (stochastic) ensemble smoother, used for large and nonlinear inverse problems, such as history matching and data assimilation. Its current formulation is overly complicated and…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-09-12 Patrick N. Raanes , Geir Evensen , Andreas S. Stordal

We propose a method for estimating the posterior distribution of a standard geostatistical model. After choosing the model formulation and specifying a prior, we use normal mixture densities to approximate the posterior distribution. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-10 Zepu Zhang

Nonlinear mixed effects models have received a great deal of attention in the statistical literature in recent years because of their flexibility in handling longitudinal studies, including human immunodeficiency virus viral dynamics,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-28 Fernanda L. Schumacher , Dipak K. Dey , Victor H. Lachos

A high order expansion of the renewal function is provided under the assumption that the inter-renewal time distribution is light tailed with finite moment generating function g on a neighborhood of 0. This expansion relies on complex…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-29 Clément Dombry , Landy Rabehasaina