Related papers: Correcting for Non-Markovian Asymptotic Effects us…
Interval-censored multi state data is collected when the state of a subject is observed periodically. The analysis of such data using non-parametric multi-state models was not possible until recently, but is very desirable as it allows for…
Multi-type Markov point processes offer a flexible framework for modelling complex multi-type point patterns where it is pertinent to capture both interactions between points as well as large scale trends depending on observed covariates.…
Non-Markovian models have great expressive power, at the cost of complex analysis of the stochastic process. The method of Stochastic State Classes (SSCs) derives closed-form analytical expressions for the joint Probability Density…
We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…
We consider a Markov jump process on a general state space to which we apply a time-dependent weak perturbation over a finite time interval. By martingale-based stochastic calculus, under a suitable exponential moment bound for the…
A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…
We observe a length-$n$ sample generated by an unknown,stationary ergodic Markov process (\emph{model}) over a finite alphabet $\mathcal{A}$. Given any string $\bf{w}$ of symbols from $\mathcal{A}$ we want estimates of the conditional…
Generalizing response theory of open systems far from equilibrium is a central quest of nonequilibrium statistical physics. Using stochastic thermodynamics, we develop an algebraic method to study the response of nonequilibrium steady state…
We propose a method for approximating solutions to optimization problems involving the global stability properties of parameter-dependent continuous-time autonomous dynamical systems. The method relies on an approximation of the…
The asymptotic variance is an important criterion to evaluate the performance of Markov chains, especially for the central limit theorems. We give the variational formulas for the asymptotic variance of discrete-time (non-reversible) Markov…
We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…
This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…
In many applications, the common assumption that a driving noise process affecting a system is independent or Markovian may not be realistic, but the noise process may be assumed to be stationary. To study such problems, this paper…
We address a class of Markov jump linear systems that are characterized by the underlying Markov process being time-inhomogeneous with a priori unknown transition probabilities. Necessary and sufficient conditions for uniform stochastic…
In this paper, we propose a class of efficient, accurate, and general methods for solving state-estimation problems with equality and inequality constraints. The methods are based on recent developments in variable splitting and partially…
We consider an operator-based latent Markov representation of a stochastic nonlinear dynamical system, where the stochastic evolution of the latent state embedded in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space is described with the corresponding…
The efficient calculation of rare-event kinetics in complex dynamical systems, such as the rate and pathways of ligand dissociation from a protein, is a generally unsolved problem. Markov state models can systematically integrate ensembles…
Markov processes are used in a wide range of disciplines, including finance. The transition densities of these processes are often unknown. However, the conditional characteristic functions are more likely to be available, especially for…
Statistical models incorporating change points are common in practice, especially in the area of biomedicine. This approach is appealing in that a specific parameter is introduced to account for the abrupt change in the response variable…
The nonlinear Markov processes are the measure-valued dynamical systems which preserve positivity. They can be represented as the law of large numbers limits of general Markov models of interacting particles. In physics, the kinetic…