Related papers: Correcting for Non-Markovian Asymptotic Effects us…
We consider a discrete time semi-Markov process where the characteristics defining the process depend on a small perturbation parameter. It is assumed that the state space consists of one finite communicating class of states and, in…
Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…
We propose an analytic approach for the steady-state dynamics of Markov processes on locally tree-like graphs. It is based on time-translation invariant probability distributions for edge trajectories, which we encode in terms of infinite…
Direct simulation of biomolecular dynamics in thermal equilibrium is challenging due to the metastable nature of conformation dynamics and the computational cost of molecular dynamics. Biased or enhanced sampling methods may improve the…
We establish non-asymptotic error bounds for the classical Maximal Likelihood Estimation of the transition matrix of a given Markov chain. Meanwhile, in the reversible case, we propose a new reversibility-preserving online Symmetric…
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…
Model reduction of Markov processes is a basic problem in modeling state-transition systems. Motivated by the state aggregation approach rooted in control theory, we study the statistical state compression of a discrete-state Markov chain…
We consider continuous-time Markov chains on integers which allow transitions to adjacent states only, with alternating rates. We give explicit formulas for probability generating functions, and also for means, variances and state…
This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…
In this paper, we develop methods of nonlinear filtering and prediction of an unobservable Markov chain with a finite set of states. This Markov chain controls coefficients of AR(p) model. Using observations generated by AR(p) model we have…
An autoregressive process with Markov regime is an autoregressive process for which the regression function at each time point is given by a nonobservable Markov chain. In this paper we consider the asymptotic properties of the maximum…
The large deviations at Level 2.5 are applied to Markov processes with absorbing states in order to obtain the explicit extinction rate of metastable quasi-stationary states in terms of their empirical time-averaged density and of their…
We study the performance of a stochastic algorithm based on the power method that adaptively learns the large deviation functions characterizing the fluctuations of additive functionals of Markov processes, used in physics to model…
We seek to infer the parameters of an ergodic Markov process from samples taken independently from the steady state. Our focus is on non-equilibrium processes, where the steady state is not described by the Boltzmann measure, but is…
This paper proposes nonparametric two-sample tests for the direct comparison of the probabilities of a particular transition between states of a continuous time nonhomogeneous Markov process with a finite state space. The proposed tests are…
We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…
We study properties of a piecewise deterministic Markov process modeling the changes in concentration of specific antibodies. The evolution of densities of the process is described by a stochastic semigroup. The long-time behaviour of this…
In this paper, we present the asymptotic properties of the moment estimator for autoregressive (AR for short) models subject to Markovian changes in regime under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily…
The standard approach to analyzing the asymptotic complexity of probabilistic programs is based on studying the asymptotic growth of certain expected values (such as the expected termination time) for increasing input size. We argue that…
We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…