Related papers: When intuition fails in assessing conditional risk…
Under the potential outcomes framework, causal effects are defined as comparisons between potential outcomes under treatment and control. To infer causal effects from randomized experiments, Neyman proposed to test the null hypothesis of…
The firewall paradox, a puzzle in black hole physics, depends on an implicit assumption: a rule that allows the infalling and the outside observer to combine their perspectives. However, a recent extension of the Wigner's friend paradox…
People often deviate from expected utility theory when making risky and intertemporal choices. While the effects of probabilistic risk and time delay have been extensively studied in isolation, their interplay and underlying theoretical…
The Monty Hall puzzle has been solved and dissected in many ways, but always using probabilistic arguments, so it is considered a probability puzzle. In this paper the puzzle is set up as an orthodox statistical problem involving an unknown…
The classical logical antinomy known as Richard-Berry paradox is combined with plausible assumptions about the size i.e. the descriptional complexity of Turing machines formalizing certain sentences, to show that formalization of language…
Recent experiments have perfectly verified the fact that quantum correlations between two entangled particles are stronger than any classical, local pre-quantum worldview allows. This is famously called the EPR paradox first conceived as a…
This is an epistemological approach to errors in both inference and risk management, leading to necessary structural properties for the probability distribution. Many mechanisms have been used to show the emergence of fat tails. Here we…
Surprise describes a range of phenomena from unexpected events to behavioral responses. We propose a measure of surprise and use it for surprise-driven learning. Our surprise measure takes into account data likelihood as well as the degree…
Probability theory, epistemically interpreted, provides an excellent, if not the best available account of inductive reasoning. This is so because there are general and definite rules for the change of subjective probabilities through…
Natural language often contains ambiguities that can lead to misinterpretation and miscommunication. While humans can handle ambiguities effectively by asking clarifying questions and/or relying on contextual cues and common-sense…
How popular a topic or an opinion appears to be in a network can be very different from its actual popularity. For example, in an online network of a social media platform, the number of people who mention a topic in their posts---i.e., its…
The black hole information paradox is a very poorly understood problem. It is often believed that Hawking's argument is not precisely formulated, and a more careful accounting of naturally occurring quantum corrections will allow the…
In this paper, I will demonstrate a new perspective on the Two Envelope Problem. I hope to show with convincing clarity how the paradox results from an inherent problem pertaining to the interpretation of Bayesian probability. Specifically,…
Corvids, apes, and children solve The Crow and The Pitcher task (from Aesop's Fables) indicating a causal understanding of the task. By cumulatively interacting with different objects, how can cognitive agents abstract the underlying…
We argue that the notion of epistemic \emph{possible worlds} in constructivism (intuitionism) is not as the same as it is in classic view, and there are possibilities, called non-predetermined worlds, which are ignored in (classic)…
The so-called problem of grue was introduced by Nelson Goodman in 1954 as a "riddle" about induction, a riddle which has been widely thought to cast doubt on the validity and rationality of induction. That unnecessary doubt in turn is…
We present a graph-theoretic model of consumer choice, where final decisions are shown to be influenced by information and knowledge, in the form of individual awareness, discriminating ability, and perception of market structure. Building…
We present a resolution of the celebrated "Surprise Exam Paradox". We argue that if the surprise exam story is analyzed using the exact same meaning of the notion of "surprise" as is dictated by the story itself, then no paradox arises.
We define quantum-like probabilistic behaviour as behaviour which is impossible to describe by using the classical probability model. We discuss the conjecture that cognitive behaviour is quantum-like. There is presented the scheme for an…
We present a conclusive answer to Bertrand's paradox, a long standing open issue in the basic physical interpretation of probability. The paradox deals with the existence of mutually inconsistent results when looking for the probability…