Related papers: A Novel Approach to Forecasting Financial Volatili…

We introduce a heterogeneous spatiotemporal GARCH model for geostatistical data or processes on networks, e.g., for modelling and predicting financial return volatility across firms in a latent spatial framework. The model combines…

Gaussian process (GP) methods have been widely studied recently, especially for large-scale systems with big data and even more extreme cases when data is sparse. Key advantages of these methods consist in: 1) the ability to provide…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are expressive models for capturing signal statistics and expressing prediction uncertainty. As a result, the robotics community has gathered interest in leveraging these methods for inference, planning, and…

This paper introduces an innovative realized volatility (RV) forecasting framework that extends the conventional Heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model via integrating Graph Signal Processing (GSP). The study first evaluates various…

This paper presents a new variable selection approach integrated with Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider a sparse projection of input variables and a general stationary covariance model that depends on the Euclidean distance…

Multi-output regression models must exploit dependencies between outputs to maximise predictive performance. The application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to this setting typically yields models that are computationally demanding and have…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a class of Kernel methods that have shown to be very useful in geoscience and remote sensing applications for parameter retrieval, model inversion, and emulation. They are widely used because they are simple,…

This research proposes a flexible Bayesian extension of the composite Gaussian process (CGP) model of Ba and Joseph (2012) for predicting (stationary or) non-stationary $y(\mathbf{x})$. The CGP generalizes the regression plus stationary…

This paper proposes a statistical verification framework using Gaussian processes (GPs) for simulation-based verification of stochastic nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties. Given a small number of stochastic simulations, the…

We develop a fast variational approximation scheme for Gaussian process (GP) regression, where the spectrum of the covariance function is subjected to a sparse approximation. Our approach enables uncertainty in covariance function…

Modeling counterparty risk is computationally challenging because it requires the simultaneous evaluation of all the trades with each counterparty under both market and credit risk. We present a multi-Gaussian process regression approach,…

We introduce a novel stochastic variational inference method for Gaussian process ($\mathcal{GP}$) regression, by deriving a posterior over a learnable set of coresets: i.e., over pseudo-input/output, weighted pairs. Unlike former free-form…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are flexible, probabilistic, nonparametric models widely used in fields such as spatial statistics and machine learning. A drawback of Gaussian processes is their computational cost, with $O(N^3)$ time and $O(N^2)$…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric probabilistic regression models that are popular due to their flexibility, data efficiency, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, standard GP models assume homoskedastic Gaussian…

The Gaussian process (GP) regression can be severely biased when the data are contaminated by outliers. This paper presents a new robust GP regression algorithm that iteratively trims the most extreme data points. While the new algorithm…

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Gaussian processes scale prohibitively with the size of the dataset. In response, many approximation methods have been developed, which inevitably introduce approximation error. This additional source of uncertainty, due to limited…

Accurately predicting the future capacity and remaining useful life of batteries is necessary to ensure reliable system operation and to minimise maintenance costs. The complex nature of battery degradation has meant that mechanistic…

In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…