Related papers: A Novel Approach to Forecasting Financial Volatili…

Gaussian processes (GPs) enable principled computation of model uncertainty, making them attractive for safety-critical applications. Such scenarios demand that GP decisions are not only accurate, but also robust to perturbations. In this…

Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…

Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful probabilistic modeling technique with built-in uncertainty quantification. When one has access to multiple correlated simulations (tasks), it is common to fit a multitask GP (MTGP) surrogate…

Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…

This paper develops a Bayesian Generalised Pareto Regression (GPR) model to forecast extreme losses in Indian equity markets, with a focus on the Nifty 50 index. Extreme negative returns, though rare, can cause significant financial…

Gaussian Process (GP) regression is a flexible modeling technique used to predict outputs and to capture uncertainty in the predictions. However, the GP regression process becomes computationally intensive when the training spatial dataset…

We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible, nonparametric approach to regression that naturally quantifies uncertainty. In many applications, the number of responses and covariates are both large, and a goal is to select covariates that…

Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility…

This paper presents a Gaussian process (GP) model for estimating piecewise continuous regression functions. In scientific and engineering applications of regression analysis, the underlying regression functions are piecewise continuous in…

Accurate human motion prediction with well-calibrated uncertainty is critical for safe human-robot collaboration (HRC), where robots must anticipate and react to human movements in real time. We propose a structured multitask variational…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are an important tool in machine learning and statistics with applications ranging from social and natural science through engineering. They constitute a powerful kernelized non-parametric method with…

This paper derives the analytic form of the $h$-step ahead prediction density of a GARCH(1,1) process under Gaussian innovations, with a possibly asymmetric news impact curve. The contributions of the paper consists both in the derivation…

In this work, we employ the Bayesian inference framework to solve the problem of estimating the solution and particularly, its derivatives, which satisfy a known differential equation, from the given noisy and scarce observations of the…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) have been widely used in machine learning to model distributions over functions, with applications including multi-modal regression, time-series prediction, and few-shot learning. GPs are particularly useful in the…

Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often…

Gaussian processes (GPs) have gained popularity as flexible machine learning models for regression and function approximation with an in-built method for uncertainty quantification. However, GPs suffer when the amount of training data is…

We introduce an ensemble learning method based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for predicting conditional expected stock returns given stock-level and macro-economic information. Our ensemble learning approach significantly reduces the…

This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…