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We investigate Eigen's model for the evolution of the genetic code of microorganisms using a novel method based on population dynamics analysis. This model, for a given number of offspring, determines long-term survival as a function of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-21 Hermano Velten , Carlos Felipe Pinheiro , Alcides Castro e Silva

We prove concentration inequalities of the form $P(Y \ge t) \le \exp(-B(t))$ for a random variable $Y$ with mean zero and variance $\sigma^2$ using a coupling technique from Stein's method that is so-called approximate zero bias couplings.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-24 Nathakhun Wiroonsri

In ecology, the description of species composition and biodiversity calls for statistical methods that involve estimating features of interest in unobserved samples based on an observed one. In the last decade, the Bayesian nonparametrics…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Alessandro Colombi , Raffaele Argiento , Federico Camerlenghi , Lucia Paci

Learning joint probability distributions on n random variables requires exponential sample size in the generic case. Here we consider the case that a temporal (or causal) order of the variables is known and that the (unknown) graph of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Pawel Wocjan , Dominik Janzing , Thomas Beth

We study a class of evolution models, where the breeding process involves an arbitrary exchangeable process, allowing for mutations to appear. The population size $n$ is fixed, hence after breeding, selection is applied. Individuals are…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-03 Daniela Bertacchi , Juri Lember , Fabio Zucca

We study the asymptotic properties of parameter estimation and predictive inference under the exchangeable Gibbs partition, characterized by a discount parameter $\alpha\in(0,1)$ and a triangular array $v_{n,k}$ satisfying a backward…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Takuya Koriyama

Counting experiments often rely on Monte Carlo simulations for predictions of Poisson expectations. The accompanying uncertainty from the finite Monte Carlo sample size can be incorporated into parameter estimation by modifying the Poisson…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-04-22 Thorsten Glüsenkamp

We introduce a continuous-time Markov chain describing dynamic allelic partitions which extends the branching process construction of the Pitman sampling formula in Pitman (2006) and the birth-and-death process with immigration studied in…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-17 Matteo Giordano , Pierpaolo De Blasi , Matteo Ruggiero

We use the Stein-Chen method to prove new explicit inequalities for the total variation, Wasserstein and local distances between the distribution of a random diagonal sum of a Bernoulli matrix and a Poisson distribution. Approximation…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-04 Bero Roos

Two new information-theoretic methods are introduced for establishing Poisson approximation inequalities. First, using only elementary information-theoretic techniques it is shown that, when $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i$ is the sum of the (possibly…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-21 Ioannis Kontoyiannis , Peter Harremoes , Oliver Johnson

As an application of Stein's method for Poisson approximation, we prove rates of convergence for the tail probabilities of two scan statistics that have been suggested for detecting local signals in sequences of independent random variables…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-29 Xiao Fang , David Siegmund

Suppose $\{\widehat\theta_n\colon n\ge1\}$ is a strongly consistent sequence of estimators for a parameter $\theta$, where $\widehat\theta_n$ is based on the first $n$ observations. Consider $Q_\varepsilon$, the number of times…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-11 Nils Lid Hjort , Grete Fenstad

Let the term $k$-representation refer to the permutation representations of the symmetric group $\mathfrak{S}_n$ on $k$-tuples and $k$-subsets as well as the $S^{(n-k,1^k)}$ irreducible representation of $\mathfrak{S}_n$. Endow…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-30 Benjamin Tsou

The problem of estimating the support of a distribution is of great importance in many areas of machine learning, computer science, physics and biology. Most of the existing work in this domain has focused on settings that assume perfectly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-16 Eli Chien , Olgica Milenkovic , Angelia Nedich

The Poisson compound decision problem is a long-standing problem in statistics, where empirical Bayes methodologies are commonly used to estimate Poisson's means in static or batch domains. In this paper, we study the Poisson compound…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 Stefano Favaro , Sandra Fortini

We provide asymptotic expansions for the Stirling numbers of the first kind and, more generally, the Ewens (or Karamata-Stirling) distribution. Based on these expansions, we obtain some new results on the asymptotic properties of the mode…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-19 Zakhar Kabluchko , Alexander Marynych , Henning Sulzbach

The Poisson distribution arises naturally when dealing with data involving counts, and it has found many applications in inverse problems and imaging. In this work, we develop an approximate Bayesian inference technique based on expectation…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-04 Chen Zhang , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

We introduce the microclustering Ewens--Pitman model for random partitions, obtained by scaling the strength parameter of the Ewens--Pitman model linearly with the sample size. The resulting random partition is shown to have the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Mario Beraha , Stefano Favaro

In the last decade, sequential Monte-Carlo methods (SMC) emerged as a key tool in computational statistics. These algorithms approximate a sequence of distributions by a sequence of weighted empirical measures associated to a weighted…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 R. Douc , France E. Moulines

We consider Bayesian variable selection in sparse high-dimensional regression, where the number of covariates $p$ may be large relative to the samples size $n$, but at most a moderate number $q$ of covariates are active. Specifically, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-31 Rina Foygel Barber , Mathias Drton , Kean Ming Tan