Related papers: Estimating the Counterparty Risk Exposure by using…
We consider the problem of efficient estimation for the drift of fractional Brownian motion $B^H:=(B^H_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$ with hurst parameter $H$ less than 1/2. We also construct superefficient James-Stein type estimators which dominate,…
The Black-Scholes implied volatility skew at the money of SPX options is known to obey a power law with respect to the time-to-maturity. We construct a model of the underlying asset price process which is dynamically consistent to the power…
We discuss chains of interacting Brownian motions. Their time reversal invariance is broken because of asymmetry in the interaction strength between left and right neighbor. In the limit of a very steep and short range potential one arrives…
We investigate the limiting distribution of geometric Brownian motion conditional on its running maximum taking large values. We show that the conditional distribution of the geometric Brownian motion converges after a suitable…
This paper explores the capabilities of the Constant Elasticity of Variance model driven by a mixed-fractional Brownian motion (mfCEV) [Axel A. Araneda. The fractional and mixed-fractional CEV model. Journal of Computational and Applied…
We consider optimal stopping problems for a Brownian motion and a geometric Brownian motion with a "disorder", assuming that the moment of a disorder is uniformly distributed on a finite interval. Optimal stopping rules are found as the…
Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem,…
Brownian multiplicative chaos measures, introduced in [Jeg20, AHS20, BBK94], are random Borel measures that can be formally defined by exponentiating $\gamma$ times the square root of the local times of planar Brownian motion. So far, only…
In this paper, we obtain analytical expression for the distribution of the occupation time in the red (below level $0$) up to an (independent) exponential horizon for spectrally negative L\'{e}vy risk processes and refracted spectrally…
We study time-consistency questions for processes of monetary risk measures that depend on bounded discrete-time processes describing the evolution of financial values. The time horizon can be finite or infinite. We call a process of…
A clearing member of a Central Counterparty (CCP) is exposed to losses on their default fund and initial margin contributions. Such losses can be incurred whenever the CCP has insufficient funds to unwind the portfolio of a defaulting…
This paper proposes a target zones exchange rate model with a terminal condition of entering a currency zone. It is assumed that the exchange rate is a function of the fundamental and time. Another essential assumptions of the model is that…
Monroe (1978) demonstrates that any local semimartingale can be represented as a time-changed Brownian Motion (BM). A natural question arises: does this representation theorem hold when the BM and the time-change are independent? We prove…
A classical inventory problem is studied from the perspective of embedded options, reducing inventory-management to the design of optimal contracts for forward delivery of stock (commodity). Financial option techniques \`{a} la…
Consider the fractional Brownian Motion (fBM) $B^H=\{B^H(t): t \in [0,1] \}$ with Hurst index $H\in (0,1)$. We construct a probability space supporting both $B^H$ and a fully simulatable process $\hat B_{\epsilon}^H $ such that $$\sup_{t\in…
We consider the problem of modelling the term structure of defaultable bonds, under minimal assumptions on the default time. In particular, we do not assume the existence of a default intensity and we therefore allow for the possibility of…
We construct a Bayesian sequential test of two simple hypotheses about the value of the unobservable drift coefficient of a Brownian motion, with a possibility to change the initial decision at subsequent moments of time for some penalty.…
Let $W^H=\{W^H(t), t \in \rr\}$ be a fractional Brownian motion of Hurst index $H \in (0, 1)$ with values in $\rr$, and let $L = \{L_t, t \ge 0\}$ be the local time process at zero of a strictly stable L\'evy process $X=\{X_t, t \ge 0\}$ of…
Fractional Brownian motion is a non-Markovian Gaussian process $X_t$, indexed by the Hurst exponent $H$. It generalises standard Brownian motion (corresponding to $H=1/2$). We study the probability distribution of the maximum $m$ of the…
The challenge to measure exposures regularly forces financial institutions into a choice between an overwhelming computational burden or oversimplification of risk. To resolve this unsettling dilemma, we systematically investigate replacing…