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We investigate Bayesian shrinkage methods for constructing predictive distributions. We consider the multivariate Normal model with a known covariance matrix and show that the Bayesian predictive density with respect to Stein's harmonic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-31 Yuzo Maruyama , Toshio Ohnishi

In this paper, we treat estimation and prediction problems where negative multinomial variables are observed and in particular consider unbalanced settings. First, the problem of estimating multiple negative multinomial parameter vectors…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-22 Yasuyuki Hamura

We develop singular value shrinkage priors for the mean matrix parameters in the matrix-variate normal model with known covariance matrices. Our priors are superharmonic and put more weight on matrices with smaller singular values. They are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-05 Takeru Matsuda , Fumiyasu Komaki

Multi-group covariance estimation for matrix-variate data with small within group sample sizes is a key part of many data analysis tasks in modern applications. To obtain accurate group-specific covariance estimates, shrinkage estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-08 Elizabeth Bersson , Peter D. Hoff

In this work, we are concerned with the estimation of the predictive density of a Gaussian random vector where both the mean and the variance are unknown. In such a context, we prove the inadmissibility of the best equivariant predictive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-27 Aurélie Boisbunon , Yuzo Maruyama

The problem of predicting independent Poisson random variables is commonly encountered in real-life practice. Simultaneous predictive distributions for independent Poisson observables are investigated, and the performance of predictive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Xiao Li , Fumiyasu Komaki

We consider the problem of estimating the predictive density of future observations from a non-parametric regression model. The density estimators are evaluated under Kullback--Leibler divergence and our focus is on establishing the exact…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-12 Xinyi Xu , Feng Liang

We consider the parameter estimation problem of a probabilistic generative model prescribed using a natural exponential family of distributions. For this problem, the typical maximum likelihood estimator usually overfits under limited…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Viet Anh Nguyen , Xuhui Zhang , Jose Blanchet , Angelos Georghiou

Bayesian predictive densities when the observed data $x$ and the target variable $y$ to be predicted have different distributions are investigated by using the framework of information geometry. The performance of predictive densities is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-27 Fumiyasu Komaki

Let $X|\mu\sim N_p(\mu,v_xI)$ and $Y|\mu\sim N_p(\mu,v_yI)$ be independent $p$-dimensional multivariate normal vectors with common unknown mean $\mu$. Based on observing $X=x$, we consider the problem of estimating the true predictive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Lawrence D. Brown , Edward I. George , Xinyi Xu

This paper discusses predictive densities under the Kullback--Leibler loss for high-dimensional Poisson sequence models under sparsity constraints. Sparsity in count data implies zero-inflation. We present a class of Bayes predictive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Keisuke Yano , Ryoya Kaneko , Fumiyasu Komaki

In a remarkable series of papers beginning in 1956, Charles Stein set the stage for the future development of minimax shrinkage estimators of a multivariate normal mean under quadratic loss. More recently, parallel developments have seen…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-27 Edward I. George , Feng Liang , Xinyi Xu

Positivity of the prior probability of Kullback-Leibler neighborhood around the true density, commonly known as the Kullback-Leibler property, plays a fundamental role in posterior consistency. A popular prior for Bayesian estimation is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-05-08 Yuefeng Wu , Subhashis Ghosal

We study the rate of convergence of posterior distributions in density estimation problems for log-densities in periodic Sobolev classes characterized by a smoothness parameter p. The posterior expected density provides a nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Catia Scricciolo

Simultaneous predictive densities for independent Poisson observables are investigated. The observed data and the target variables to be predicted are independently distributed according to different Poisson distributions parametrized by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-27 Fumiyasu Komaki

Frequentist conditions for asymptotic suitability of Bayesian procedures focus on lower bounds for prior mass in Kullback-Leibler neighbourhoods of the data distribution. The goal of this paper is to investigate the flexibility in criteria…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-19 B. J. K. Kleijn , Y. Y. Zhao

Discrete normal distributions are defined as the distributions with prescribed means and covariance matrices which maximize entropy on the integer lattice support. The set of discrete normal distributions form an exponential family with…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Frank Nielsen

Obtaining an accurate estimate of the underlying covariance matrix from finite sample size data is challenging due to sample size noise. In recent years, sophisticated covariance-cleaning techniques based on random matrix theory have been…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-11 Christian Bongiorno , Lamia Lamrani

We discuss optimal prediction for families of probability distributions with a locally compact topological group structure. Right-invariant priors were previously shown to yield a posterior predictive distribution minimizing the worst-case…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Jannis Bolik , Thomas Hofmann

Estimation of the mean vector and covariance matrix is of central importance in the analysis of multivariate data. In the framework of generalized linear models, usually the variances are certain functions of the means with the normal…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-25 Anupam Kundu , Mohsen Pourahmadi