Related papers: Sampling Errors in Nested Sampling Parameter Estim…
We introduce dynamic nested sampling: a generalisation of the nested sampling algorithm in which the number of "live points" varies to allocate samples more efficiently. In empirical tests the new method significantly improves calculation…
Nested sampling (NS) computes parameter posterior distributions and makes Bayesian model comparison computationally feasible. Its strengths are the unsupervised navigation of complex, potentially multi-modal posteriors until a well-defined…
Nested sampling (NS) is a popular algorithm for Bayesian computation. We investigate statistical errors in NS both analytically and numerically. We show two analytic results. First, we show that the leading terms in Skilling's expression…
In performing a Bayesian analysis, two difficult problems often emerge. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the resulting posterior distribution may be multi-modal or exhibit pronounced (curving) degeneracies.…
Nested sampling has emerged as a valuable tool for Bayesian analysis, in particular for determining the Bayesian evidence. The method is based on a specific type of random sampling of the likelihood function and prior volume of the…
We introduce a novel technique within the Nested Sampling framework to enhance efficiency of the computation of Bayesian evidence, a critical component in scientific data analysis. In higher dimensions, Nested Sampling relies on Markov…
Nested Sampling is a method for computing the Bayesian evidence, also called the marginal likelihood, which is the integral of the likelihood with respect to the prior. More generally, it is a numerical probabilistic quadrature rule. The…
The main idea of nested sampling is to substitute the high-dimensional likelihood integral over the parameter space $\Omega$ by an integral over the unit line $[0,1]$ by employing a push-forward with respect to a suitable transformation.…
Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…
Fitting a simplifying model with several parameters to real data of complex objects is a highly nontrivial task, but enables the possibility to get insights into the objects physics. Here, we present a method to infer the parameters of the…
In real-world Bayesian inference applications, prior assumptions regarding the parameters of interest may be unrepresentative of their actual values for a given dataset. In particular, if the likelihood is concentrated far out in the wings…
Nested sampling is a promising tool for Bayesian statistical analysis because it simultaneously performs parameter estimation and facilitates model comparison. MultiNest is one of the most popular nested sampling implementations, and has…
Nested sampling is a simulation method for approximating marginal likelihoods proposed by Skilling (2006). We establish that nested sampling has an approximation error that vanishes at the standard Monte Carlo rate and that this error is…
Neural nets have become popular to accelerate parameter inferences, especially for the upcoming generation of galaxy surveys in cosmology. As neural nets are approximative by nature, a recurrent question has been how to propagate the neural…
Nested sampling parameter estimation differs from evidence estimation, in that it incurs an additional source of uncertainty. This uncertainty affects estimates of parameter means and credible intervals in gravitational wave analyses and…
Suppose there are two unknown parameters, each parameter is the solution to an estimating equation, and the estimating equation of one parameter depends on the other parameter. The parameters can be jointly estimated by "stacking" their…
This paper re-examines the problem of parameter estimation in Bayesian networks with missing values and hidden variables from the perspective of recent work in on-line learning [Kivinen & Warmuth, 1994]. We provide a unified framework for…
Nested-error regression models are widely used for analyzing clustered data. For example, they are often applied to two-stage sample surveys, and in biology and econometrics. Prediction is usually the main goal of such analyses, and…
Motivated by inferring cellular signaling networks using noisy flow cytometry data, we develop procedures to draw inference for Bayesian networks based on error-prone data. Two methods for inferring causal relationships between nodes in a…
We provide an analytical argument for understanding the likely nature of parameter shifts between those coming from an analysis of a dataset and from a subset of that dataset, assuming differences are down to noise and any intrinsic…