Related papers: Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather …
Accurate and reliable predictions of solar flares are essential due to their potentially significant impact on Earth and space-based infrastructure. Although deep learning models have shown notable predictive capabilities in this domain,…
Although the sun is really far away from us, some solar activities could still influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems on Earth. Those time-varying conditions in space caused by the…
Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: How good are seasonal climate forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we…
The solar X-ray irradiance is significantly heightened during the course of a solar flare, which can cause radio blackouts due to ionization of the atoms in the ionosphere. As the duration of a solar flare is not related to the size of that…
With machine learning entering into the awareness of the heliophysics community, solar flare prediction has become a topic of increased interest. Although machine learning models have advanced with each successive publication, the input…
The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…
The prediction of solar flares is still a significant challenge in space weather research, with no techniques currently capable of producing reliable forecasts performing significantly above climatology. In this paper, we present a flare…
The solar wind (SW) is a vital component of space weather, providing a background for solar transients such as coronal mass ejections, stream interaction regions, and energetic particles propagating toward Earth. Accurate prediction of…
Generation and load balance is required in the economic scheduling of generating units in the smart grid. Variable energy generations, particularly from wind and solar energy resources, are witnessing a rapid boost, and, it is anticipated…
The Geostationary Orbital Environmental Satellites (GOES) Soft X-ray (SXR) sensors have provided data relating to, inter alia, the time, intensity and duration of solar flares since the 1970s. The GOES SXR Flare List has become the standard…
The issue of predicting solar flares is one of the most fundamental in physics, addressing issues of plasma physics, high-energy physics, and modelling of complex systems. It also poses societal consequences, with our ever-increasing need…
Many systems used by society are extremely vulnerable to space weather events such as solar flares and geomagnetic storms which could potentially cause catastrophic damage. In recent years, many works have emerged to provide early warning…
Accurate, reliable solar flare prediction is crucial for mitigating potential disruptions to critical infrastructure, while predicting solar flares remains a significant challenge. Existing methods based on heuristic physical features often…
Solar flares, along with other sun-originated events such as Coronal Mass Ejections, fast solar wind streams, and solar energetic particles are among the most relevant events in Space Weather. Moreover, solar flares are the most energetic…
The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution…
Although space weather events may not directly affect human life, they have the potential to inflict significant harm upon our communities. Harmful space weather events can trigger atmospheric changes that result in physical and economic…
Computer-generated forecasts divide the earth's surface into gridboxes, each now ~25% of the size of London, and predict one value per gridbox. If weather varies markedly within a gridbox forecasts for specific sites inevitably fail. A…
Solar flares are energetic events taking place in the Sun's atmosphere, and their effects can greatly impact the environment of the surrounding planets. In particular, eruptive flares, as opposed to confined flares, launch coronal mass…
Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets…
We present a case study of solar flare forecasting by means of metadata feature time series, by treating it as a prominent class-imbalance and temporally coherent problem. Taking full advantage of pre-flare time series in solar active…