Related papers: Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather …
During European Space Weather Week 15 two plenary sessions were held to review the status of operational space weather forecasting. The first session addressed the topic of working with space weather service providers now and in the future,…
At the heart of the Met Office climate and weather forecasting capabilities lies a sophisticated numerical model which solves the equations of large-scale atmospheric flow. Since this model uses semi-implicit time-stepping, it requires the…
We conduct the first comprehensive meta-analysis of deterministic solar forecasting based on skill score, screening 1,447 papers from Google Scholar and reviewing the full texts of 320 papers for data extraction. A database of 4,687 points…
Aspects of operational modeling for climate, weather, and space weather forecasts are contrasted, with a particular focus on the somewhat conflicting demands of 'operational stability' versus 'dynamic development' of the involved models.…
Solar flare is one of the severest solar activities on the sun, and it has many important impacts on the near-earth space. It has been found that flight arrival delays will increase during solar flare. However, the detailed intrinsic…
Solar flares are intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation, which occur due to a rapid destabilization and reconnection of the magnetic field. While pre-flare signatures and trends have been investigated from magnetic observations prior…
Indications are presented for a significant connection between the relative motion of the planets and the appearance of energetic solar flares. Based on the records of the last four decades, the analysis highlights remarkable features and a…
We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 h. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on…
Space weather predictions of the solar wind impacting Earth are usually first based on remote-sensing observations of the solar disc and corona, and eventually validated and/or refined with in-situ measurements taken at the Sun$-$Earth…
Modern weather forecasts are commonly issued as consistent multi-day forecast trajectories with a time resolution of 1-3 hours. Prior to issuing, statistical post-processing is routinely used to correct systematic errors and…
In this paper, we consider incorporating data associated with the sun's north and south polar field strengths to improve solar flare prediction performance using machine learning models. When used to supplement local data from active…
Solar flares are a primary driver of space weather, and forecasting their occurrence remains a significant challenge. This paper presents a novel flare prediction model based on topologically derived photospheric magnetic parameters. We…
The need of real-time of monitoring and alerting systems for Space Weather hazards has grown significantly in the last two decades. One of the most important challenge for space mission operations and planning is the prediction of solar…
Societal dependence on space-based services demands major advances in predicting the impacts of eruptive solar events. Millimeter-wavelength observations offer uniquely direct access to the time-dependent physical conditions in the…
The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short…
Space weather, driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), poses significant risks to technological systems. Accurately forecasting these events and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere remains a challenge because of the…
Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental…
Most solar applications and systems can be reliably used to generate electricity and power in many homes and offices. Recently, there is an increase in many solar required systems that can be found not only in electricity generation but…
Solar flares emanate from solar active regions hosting complex and strong bipolar magnetic fluxes. Estimating the probability of an active region to flare and defining reliable precursors of intense flares is an extremely challenging task…
Solar energy forecasting has seen tremendous growth in the last decade using historical time series collected from a weather station, such as weather variables wind speed and direction, solar radiance, and temperature. It helps in the…