Related papers: Multi-Patch and Multi-Group Epidemic Models: A New…
Understanding the dynamics of the spread of diseases within populations is critical for effective public health interventions. We extend the classical SIR model by incorporating additional complexities such as the introduction of a cure and…
Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…
Real epidemic spreading networks often composed of several kinds of networks interconnected with each other, and the interrelated networks have the different topologies and epidemic dynamics. Moreover, most human diseases are derived from…
We propose a network behavioral-feedback Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model in which the interaction matrix describing the infection rates across subpopulations depends in feedback on the current epidemic state. This model…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
We propose a compartmental model for vector-transmitted diseases, such as Malaria and Dengue, spreading over complex networks. Individuals are represented by independent random walkers and vectors by infected nodes. Both walkers and nodes…
We present a modelling framework for the spreading of epidemics on temporal networks from which both the individual-based and pair-based models can be recovered. The proposed temporal pair-based model that is systematically derived from…
We study a stochastic epidemic model with multiple patches (locations), where individuals in each patch are categorized into three compartments, Susceptible, Infected and Recovered/Removed, and may migrate from one patch to another in any…
Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that…
I study the spreading of infectious diseases on heterogeneous populations. I represent the population structure by a contact-graph where vertices represent agents and edges represent disease transmission channels among them. The population…
The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…
We propose a theoretical framework for the study of epidemics in structured metapopulations, with heterogeneous agents, subjected to recurrent mobility patterns. We propose to represent the heterogeneity in the composition of the…
Epidemic spread in single-host systems strongly depends on the population's contact network. However, little is known regarding the spread of epidemics across networks representing populations of multiple hosts. We explored cross-species…
A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…
When a new infectious disease (or a new strain of an existing one) emerges, as in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, different types of mobility restrictions are considered to slow down or mitigate the spread of the disease. The measures to be…
Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is…
Contact (or mixing, or more generally connectivity) matrices are a fundamental component of modelling and inference for infectious disease epidemiology. Their structure and parametrisation directly accounts for the frequency of interactions…
Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…