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We prove a weak iterated invariance principle for a large class of non-uniformly expanding random dynamical systems. In addition, we give a quenched homogenization result for fast-slow systems in the case when the fast component corresponds…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Davor Dragicevic , Yeor Hafouta

Penalized estimation principle is fundamental to high-dimensional problems. In the literature, it has been extensively and successfully applied to various models with only structural parameters. As a contrast, in this paper, we apply this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-03 Jianqing Fan , Runlong Tang , Xiaofeng Shi

We discuss joint temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of $N$ independent copies of strictly stationary INteger-valued AutoRegressive processes of order 1 (INAR(1)) with random coefficient $\alpha\in(0,1)$ and with idiosyncratic Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-19 Matyas Barczy , Fanni Nedényi , Gyula Pap

We suggest how to construct joint confidence distributions for several parameters and apply these ideas to an autoregressive process of general order. The implied non informative prior for the parameters, i.e. the ratio between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Rolf Larsson

In the continuous time random walk model, the time-fractional operator usually expresses an infinite waiting time probability density. Different from that usual setting, this work considers the tempered time-fractional operator, which…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-16 Libo Feng , Fawang Liu , Vo V. Anh , Shanlin Qin

We investigate the notion of finite time stability for tempered fractional systems (TFSs) with time delays and variable coefficients. Then, we examine some sufficient conditions that allow concluding the TFSs stability in a finite time…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-20 Hanaa Zitane , Delfim F. M. Torres

We prove several limit theorems for a simple class of partially hyperbolic fast-slow systems. We start with some well know results on averaging, then we give a substantial refinement of known large (and moderate) deviation results and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-11-06 Jacopo De Simoi , Carlangelo Liverani

Uniformly valid inference for cointegrated vector autoregressive processes has so far proven difficult due to certain discontinuities arising in the asymptotic distribution of the least squares estimator. We extend asymptotic results from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-08 Christian Holberg , Susanne Ditlevsen

We consider stationary autoregressive processes with coefficients restricted to an ellipsoid, which includes autoregressive processes with absolutely summable coefficients. We provide consistency results under different norms for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-09 Alessio Sancetta

We propose a new method for the estimation of a semiparametric tempered stable L\'{e}vy model. The estimation procedure combines iteratively an approximate semiparametric method of moment estimator, Truncated Realized Quadratic Variations…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-25 José E. Figueroa-López , Ruoting Gong , Yuchen Han

Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of tail-based risk measures. Since such quantities are often determined mainly by rare events standard Monte Carlo can be inefficient and importance sampling provides a…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-29 Pierre Nyquist

We study the persistence probabilities of a moving average process of order one with uniform innovations. We identify a number of regions, characterized by the location of the uniform distribution and the coupling parameter of the process,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Frank Aurzada , Kilian Raschel

We present a machine learning approach to the inversion of Fredholm integrals of the first kind. The approach provides a natural regularization in cases where the inverse of the Fredholm kernel is ill-conditioned. It also provides an…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2016-12-16 Louis-Francois Arsenault , Richard Neuberg , Lauren A. Hannah , Andrew J. Millis

Determinantal and permanental processes are point processes with a correlation function given by a determinant or a permanent. Their atoms exhibit mutual attraction of repulsion, thus these processes are very far from the uncorrelated…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-04-19 Isabelle Camilier , Laurent Decreusefond

New sampling algorithms based on simulating continuous-time stochastic processes called piece-wise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) have shown considerable promise. However, these methods can struggle to sample from multi-modal or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-31 Matthew Sutton , Robert Salomone , Augustin Chevallier , Paul Fearnhead

We propose a sparse coefficient estimation and automated model selection procedure for autoregressive (AR) processes with heavy-tailed innovations based on penalized conditional maximum likelihood. Under mild moment conditions on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-24 Hailin Sang , Yan Sun

In this paper, we survey some recent results on statistical inference (parametric and nonparametric statistical estimation, hypotheses testing) about the spectrum of stationary models with tapered data, as well as, a question concerning…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-17 Mamikon S. Ginovyan , Artur A. Sahakyan

The method of tempered transitions was proposed by Neal (1996) for tackling the difficulties arising when using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from multimodal distributions. In common with methods such as simulated tempering and…

Computation · Statistics 2012-09-11 Gundula Behrens , Nial Friel , Merrilee Hurn

In this paper we present the asymptotic analysis of the realised quadratic variation for multivariate symmetric $\beta$-stable L\'evy processes, $\beta \in (0,2)$, and certain pure jump semimartingales. The main focus is on derivation of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-07 Johannes Heiny , Mark Podolskij

This paper deals with ergodic theorems for particular time-inhomogeneous Markov processes, whose the time-inhomogeneity is asymptotically periodic. Under a Lyapunov/minorization condition, it is shown that, for any measurable bounded…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-06 William Oçafrain