Related papers: Wisdom of the institutional crowd
Consider an Galton Watson tree of height $m$: each leaf has one of $k$ opinions or not. In other words, for $i \in \{1, . . . , k\}$, $x$ at generation $m$ thinks $i$ with probability $p_i$ and nothing with probability $p_0$. Moreover the…
Collective decision making is often a customary action taken in government crowdsourcing. Through ensemble of opinions (popularly known as judgment analysis), governments can satisfy majority of the people who provided opinions. This has…
In this work we use the theory of Crowd Capital as a lens to compare and contrast a number of IS tools currently in use by organizations for crowd-engagement purposes. In doing so, we contribute to both the practitioner and research…
We analyze and quantify, in a financial market with parameter uncertainty and for a Constant Relative Risk Aversion investor, the utility effects of two different boundedly rational (i.e., sub-optimal) investment strategies (namely, myopic…
Algorithmic systems make decisions that have a great impact in our lives. As our dependency on them is growing so does the need for transparency and holding them accountable. This paper presents a model for evaluating how transparent these…
Portfolio sorting is ubiquitous in the empirical finance literature, where it has been widely used to identify pricing anomalies. Despite its popularity, little attention has been paid to the statistical properties of the procedure. We…
One purpose -- quite a few thinkers would say the main purpose -- of seeking knowledge about the world is to enhance our ability to make good decisions. An item of knowledge that can make no conceivable difference with regard to anything we…
The quality of governance of institutions, corporations and countries depends on the ability of efficient decision making within the respective boards or cabinets. Opinion formation processes within groups are size dependent. It is often…
Sparsity or complexity? In modern high-dimensional asset pricing, these are often viewed as competing principles: richer feature spaces appear to favor complexity, while economic intuition has long favored parsimony. We show that this…
Community detection methods can be used to explore the structure of complex systems. The well-known modular configurations in complex financial systems indicate the existence of community structures. Here we analyze the community properties…
Taking informed decisions, namely acting rationally, is an individual attitude of paramount relevance in nature and human societies. In this work, we study how rationality spreads in a community. To this end, through an agent-based model,…
Indirect reciprocity is a plausible mechanism for sustaining cooperation: people cooperate with those who have a good reputation, which can be acquired by helping others. However, this mechanism requires the population to agree on who has…
Financial markets provide an ideal frame for studying decision making in crowded environments. Both the amount and accuracy of the data allows to apply tools and concepts coming from physics that studies collective and emergent phenomena or…
Complexity is an interdisciplinary concept which, first of all, addresses the question of how order emerges out of randomness. For many reasons matrices provide a very practical and powerful tool in approaching and quantifying the related…
Being able to correctly aggregate the beliefs of many people into a single belief is a problem fundamental to many important social, economic and political processes such as policy making, market pricing and voting. Although there exist…
We study a model of a population making a binary decision based on information spreading within the population, which is fully connected or covering a square grid. We assume that a fraction of the population wants to make the choice of the…
Recent progress in the large scale mapping of social networks is opening new quantitative windows into the structure of human societies. These networks are largely the result of how we access and utilize information. Here I show that a…
The ability of a society to make the right decisions on relevant matters relies on its capability to properly aggregate the noisy information spread across the individuals it is made of. In this paper we study the information aggregation…
We propose an agent-based model of collective opinion formation to study the wisdom of crowds under social influence. The opinion of an agent is a continuous positive value, denoting its subjective answer to a factual question. The wisdom…
Many socioeconomic phenomena, such as technology adoption, collaborative problem-solving, and content engagement, involve a collection of agents coordinating to take a common action, aligning their decisions to maximize their individual…