Related papers: Wisdom of the institutional crowd
Organisations are increasingly open to scrutiny, and need to be able to prove that they operate in a fair and ethical way. Accountability should extend to the production and use of the data and knowledge assets used in AI systems, as it…
Financial price changes obey two universal properties: they follow a power law and they tend to be clustered in time. The second regularity, known as volatility clustering, entails some predictability in the price changes: while their sign…
We revisit a family of integrals that delude intuition, and that recently appeared in mathematical literature in connection with computer algebra package verification. We show that the remarkable properties displayed by these integrals…
Social animals have to make collective decisions on a daily basis. In most instances, these decisions are taken by consensus, when the group does what the majority of individuals want. Individuals have to base these decisions on the…
The roles played by decision factors in making complex subject are decisions are characterized by how these factors affect the overall decision. Evidence that partially matches a factor is evaluated, and then effective computational rules…
Neither artificial intelligence designed to play Turing's imitation game, nor augmented intelligence built to maximize the human manipulation of information are tuned to accelerate innovation and improve humanity's collective advance…
Evaluation of systemic risk in networks of financial institutions in general requires information of inter-institution financial exposures. In the framework of Debt Rank algorithm, we introduce an approximate method of systemic risk…
Swarming is a conspicuous behavioural trait observed in bird flocks, fish shoals, insect swarms and mammal herds. It is thought to improve collective awareness and offer protection from predators. Many current models involve the hypothesis…
Crowdsourcing can solve problems that current fully automated systems cannot. Its effectiveness depends on the reliability, accuracy, and speed of the crowd workers that drive it. These objectives are frequently at odds with one another.…
Future Event Prediction (FEP) is an essential activity whose demand and application range across multiple domains. While traditional methods like simulations, predictive and time-series forecasting have demonstrated promising outcomes,…
How does temporally structured private and social information shape collective decisions? To address this question we consider a network of rational agents who independently accumulate private evidence that triggers a decision upon reaching…
The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not reason about probability using the rules of probability theory, but instead use heuristics which sometimes yield reasonable…
Transparency is a major requirement of modern AI based decision making systems deployed in real world. A popular approach for achieving transparency is by means of explanations. A wide variety of different explanations have been proposed…
I study the limit of a large random economy, where a set of consumers invests in financial instruments engineered by banks, in order to optimize their future consumption. This exercise shows that, even in the ideal case of perfect…
In this paper we propose a novel index to quantify and measure the flow of information on macro and micro scales. We discuss the implications of this index for knowledge management fields and also as intellectual capital that can thus be…
In this paper the theory of flexibly-bounded rationality which is an extension to the theory of bounded rationality is revisited. Rational decision making involves using information which is almost always imperfect and incomplete together…
Byzantine quorum systems provide higher throughput than proof-of-work and incur modest energy consumption. Further, their modern incarnations incorporate personalized and heterogeneous trust. Thus, they are emerging as an appealing…
This chapter does not deal with specific tools and techniques for managing complex systems, but proposes some basic concepts that help us to think and speak about complexity. We review classical thinking and its intrinsic drawbacks when…
Collective, especially group-based, managerial decision making is crucial in organizations. Using an evolutionary theoretic approach to collective decision making, agent-based simulations were conducted to investigate how human collective…
Effective human-AI collaboration requires humans to accurately gauge AI capabilities and calibrate their trust accordingly. Humans often have context-dependent private information, referred to as Unique Human Knowledge (UHK), that is…