Related papers: Robust and Consistent Estimation of Generators in …
We propose a Markov chain model for credit rating changes. We do not use any distributional assumptions on the asset values of the rated companies but directly model the rating transitions process. The parameters of the model are estimated…
In this work, Transition Probability Matrix (TPM) is proposed as a new method for extracting the features of nodes in the graph. The proposed method uses random walks to capture the connectivity structure of a node's close neighborhood. The…
A TPM (trusted platform module) is a chip present mostly on newer motherboards, and its primary function is to create, store and work with cryptographic keys. This dedicated chip can serve to authenticate other devices or to protect…
Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) offer a computationally scalable framework for generative modeling, supporting exact and efficient inference of a wide range of probabilistic queries. While recent advances have significantly improved the…
The proliferation of intermittent distributed renewable energy sources (RES) in modern power systems has fundamentally compromised the reliability and accuracy of deterministic net load forecasting. Generative models, particularly diffusion…
There exists a range of different models for estimating and simulating credit risk transitions to optimally manage credit risk portfolios and products. In this chapter we present a Coupled Markov Chain approach to model rating transitions…
In this paper we present a novel method for estimating the parameters of a parametric diffusion processes. Our approach is based on a closed-form Maximum Likelihood estimator for an approximating Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) of the…
Expectation maximisation (EM) is an unsupervised learning method for estimating the parameters of a finite mixture distribution. It works by introducing "hidden" or "latent" variables via Baum's auxiliary function $Q$ that allow the joint…
We propose a unifying framework for the pricing of debt securities under general time-inhomogeneous short-rate diffusion processes. The pricing of bonds, bond options, callable/putable bonds, and convertible bonds (CBs) is covered. Using…
Over the past decades, there has been a surge of interest in studying low-dimensional structures within high-dimensional data. Statistical factor models $-$ i.e., low-rank plus diagonal covariance structures $-$ offer a powerful framework…
Predictability of behavior has emerged an an important characteristic in many fields including biology, medicine, and marketing. Behavior can be recorded as a sequence of actions performed by an individual over a given time period. This…
In this paper, we consider statistical estimation of time-inhomogeneous aggregate Markov models. Unaggregated models, which corresponds to Markov chains, are commonly used in multi-state life insurance to model the biometric states of an…
This paper presents a new parameter estimation algorithm for the adaptive control of a class of time-varying plants. The main feature of this algorithm is a matrix of time-varying learning rates, which enables parameter estimation error…
Energy Markov Decision Processes (EMDPs) are finite-state Markov decision processes where each transition is assigned an integer counter update and a rational payoff. An EMDP configuration is a pair s(n), where s is a control state and n is…
The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful computational technique for finding the maximum likelihood estimates for parametric models when the data are not fully observed. The EM is best suited for situations where the…
Real-time acquisition of accurate machine parameters is of significance to achieving high performance in electric drives, particularly targeted for mission-critical applications. Unlike the saturation effects, the temperature variations are…
In this paper we formulate the nonnegative matrix factorisation (NMF) problem as a maximum likelihood estimation problem for hidden Markov models and propose online expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithms to estimate the NMF and the other…
A popular way to estimate the parameters of a hidden Markov model (HMM) is direct numerical maximization (DNM) of the (log-)likelihood function. The advantages of employing the TMB (Kristensen et al., 2016) framework in R for this purpose…
Trade credit insurance (TCI) is a specialized line of property and casualty insurance, protecting businesses against financial losses due to buyer's insolvency. Predictive modeling for TCI claims poses formidable challenges due to the…
Finite mixture models have been widely used for the modelling and analysis of data from heterogeneous populations. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters is typically carried out via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The…