Related papers: Robust and Consistent Estimation of Generators in …
We show that a large class of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms, including, but not limited to, Covariance Matrix Adaption, can be written as a Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and as exact EM in the limit of infinite…
Effective credit risk management is fundamental to financial decision-making, requiring robust models to predict default probabilities and classify financial entities. Traditional machine learning approaches face significant challenges when…
We consider parametric version of fixed-delay continuous-time Markov chains (or equivalently deterministic and stochastic Petri nets, DSPN) where fixed-delay transitions are specified by parameters, rather than concrete values. Our goal is…
A simple yet effective way of modeling survival data with cure fraction is by considering Box-Cox transformation cure model (BCTM) that unifies mixture and promotion time cure models. In this article, we numerically study the statistical…
Finite state machines (FSMs) are a theoretically and practically important model of computation. We propose a general, thermodynamically consistent model of FSMs and characterise the resource requirements of these machines. We model FSMs as…
We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…
This paper proposes an iterative distributionally robust model predictive control (MPC) scheme to solve a risk-constrained infinite-horizon optimal control problem. In each iteration, the algorithm generates a trajectory from the starting…
Predictive Maintenance (PdM) can only be implemented when the online knowledge of system condition is available, and this has become available with deployment of on-equipment sensors. To date, most studies on predicting the remaining useful…
We provide a general theory of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring high dimensional latent variable models. In particular, we make two contributions: (i) For parameter estimation, we propose a novel high dimensional EM…
The EM (Expectation-Maximization) algorithm is regarded as an MM (Majorization-Minimization) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of statistical models. Expanding this view, this paper demonstrates that by choosing an appropriate…
The constant potential molecular dynamics simulation method proposed by Siepmann and Sprik and reformulated later by Reed (SR-CPM) has been widely employed to investigate the metallic electrolyte/electrode interfaces, especially for…
Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF), combined with EM, is commonly used as an algorithm for likelihood maximization in undirected graphical models. In this paper, we present two iterative algorithms that generalize upon IPF. The first one…
While Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated exceptional performance in generalized forecasting, their performance often degrades significantly when deployed in real-world vertical domains characterized by temporal…
This project works with the risk model developed by Li et al. (2015) and quests modelling, estimating and pricing insurance for risks brought in by innovative technologies, or other emerging or latent risks. The model considers two…
Performative prediction is a framework accounting for the shift in the data distribution induced by the prediction of a model deployed in the real world. Ensuring rapid convergence to a stable solution where the data distribution remains…
The expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a widespread method for empirical Bayesian inference, but its expectation step (E-step) is often intractable. Employing a stochastic approximation scheme with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Analyses of serially-sampled data often begin with the assumption that the observations represent discrete samples from a latent continuous-time stochastic process. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is one such generative model whose…
The EM algorithm is a powerful tool for maximum likelihood estimation with missing data. In practice, the calculations required for the EM algorithm are often intractable. We review numerous methods to circumvent this intractability, all of…
A continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) execution is a continuous class of probability distributions over states. This paper proposes a probabilistic linear-time temporal logic, namely continuous-time linear logic (CLL), to reason about the…
This paper designs traffic signal control policies for a network of signalized intersections without knowing the demand and parameters. Within a model predictive control (MPC) framework, control policies consist of an algorithm that…