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We develop exact Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for discretely-sampled, directly and indirectly observed diffusions. The qualification "exact" refers to the fact that the invariant and limiting distribution of the Markov chains is the…

To sample from a general target distribution $p_*\propto e^{-f_*}$ beyond the isoperimetric condition, Huang et al. (2023) proposed to perform sampling through reverse diffusion, giving rise to Diffusion-based Monte Carlo (DMC).…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-15 Xunpeng Huang , Difan Zou , Hanze Dong , Yian Ma , Tong Zhang

We extend the event-chain Monte Carlo algorithm from hard-sphere interactions to the micro-canonical ensemble (constant potential energy) for general potentials. This event-driven Monte Carlo algorithm is non-local, rejection-free, and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-08-31 Etienne P. Bernard , Werner Krauth

We discuss Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and event-chain Monte Carlo (ECMC) for the one-dimensional chain of particles with harmonic interactions and benchmark them against local reversible Metropolis algorithms. While HMC achieves…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-11-19 Werner Krauth

Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-29 Paul Fearnhead , Joris Bierkens , Murray Pollock , Gareth O Roberts

In this article, we present an event-driven algorithm that generalizes the recent hard-sphere event-chain Monte Carlo method without introducing discretizations in time or in space. A factorization of the Metropolis filter and the concept…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-02-10 Manon Michel , Sebastian C. Kapfer , Werner Krauth

We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-20 Yun Yang , David B. Dunson

In this article we propose a novel MCMC method based on deterministic transformations T: X x D --> X where X is the state-space and D is some set which may or may not be a subset of X. We refer to our new methodology as Transformation-based…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-21 Somak Dutta , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-09 Adrien Corenflos , Matthew Sutton , Nicolas Chopin

This review treats the mathematical and algorithmic foundations of non-reversible Markov chains in the context of event-chain Monte Carlo (ECMC), a continuous-time lifted Markov chain that employs the factorized Metropolis algorithm. It…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2022-08-31 Werner Krauth

For many complex simulation tasks spanning areas such as healthcare, engineering, and finance, Monte Carlo (MC) methods are invaluable due to their unbiased estimates and precise error quantification. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulations…

A Monte Carlo method to sample the classical configurational canonical ensemble is introduced. In contrast to the Metropolis algorithm, where trial moves can be rejected, in this approach collisions take place. The implementation is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-03-19 E. A. J. F. Peters , G. de With

The Multilevel Monte Carlo method is an efficient variance reduction technique. It uses a sequence of coarse approximations to reduce the computational cost in uncertainty quantification applications. The method is nowadays often considered…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-15 Pieterjan Robbe , Dirk Nuyens , Stefan Vandewalle

Statisticians often use Monte Carlo methods to approximate probability distributions, primarily with Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. Sequential Monte Carlo samplers are a class of algorithms that combine both techniques to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-20 Chenguang Dai , Jeremy Heng , Pierre E. Jacob , Nick Whiteley

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-23 David W. Hogg , Daniel Foreman-Mackey

This paper proposes an eigenvalue-based small-sample approximation of the celebrated Markov Chain Monte Carlo that delivers an invariant steady-state distribution that is consistent with traditional Monte Carlo methods. The proposed…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-05 Irene Aldridge

Evaluating the degree of partisan districting (Gerrymandering) in a statistical framework typically requires an ensemble of districting plans which are drawn from a prescribed probability distribution that adheres to a realistic and…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-19 Gregory Herschlag , Jonathan C. Mattingly , Matthias Sachs , Evan Wyse

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a well-established family of Monte Carlo methods for performing approximate Bayesian inference in the case where an ``implicit'' model is used for the data: when the data model can be simulated, but…

Computation · Statistics 2022-11-07 Ivis Kerama , Thomas Thorne , Richard G. Everitt

Population Monte Carlo (PMC) sampling methods are powerful tools for approximating distributions of static unknowns given a set of observations. These methods are iterative in nature: at each step they generate samples from a proposal…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-17 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a sampling-based method for estimating features of probability distributions. MCMC methods produce a serially correlated, yet representative, sample from the desired distribution. As such it can be…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-10 Dootika Vats , Nathan Robertson , James M Flegal , Galin L Jones