Related papers: J.B.S. Haldane Could Have Done Better
A fundamental class of inferential problems are those characterised by there having been a substantial degree of pre-data (or prior) belief that the value of a model parameter $\theta_j$ was equal or lay close to a specified value…
Bayesian inference gets its name from *Bayes's theorem*, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference…
Variation in the evolutionary process across the sites of nucleotide sequence alignments is well established, and is an increasingly pervasive feature of datasets composed of gene regions sampled from multiple loci and/or different genomes.…
In 1934, F. Yates described a sum of squares for testing factor main effects in saturated unbalanced models for effects of two factors. He claimed no particular properties of this sum of squares other than that it provided an "efficient…
When performing Bayesian data analysis using a general linear mixed model, the resulting posterior density is almost always analytically intractable. However, if proper conditionally conjugate priors are used, there is a simple two-block…
The approval success rate of drug candidates is very low with the majority of failure due to safety and efficacy. Increasingly available high dimensional information on targets, drug molecules and indications provides an opportunity for ML…
In a 1985 paper, Berthold J. Maier gave necessary and sufficient conditions for the weak embeddability of amalgams of two nilpotent groups of class two over a common subgroup. Then he derived simpler conditions for some special cases. One…
The problem of combining the evidence concerning an unknown, contained in each of $k$ Bayesian inference bases, is discussed. This can be considered as a generalization of the problem of pooling $k$ priors to determine a consensus prior.…
In this paper, we show how a complete and exact Bayesian analysis of a parametric mixture model is possible in some cases when components of the mixture are taken from exponential families and when conjugate priors are used. This restricted…
We propose and evaluate two methods that validate the computation of Bayes factors: one based on an improved variant of simulation-based calibration checking (SBC) and one based on calibration metrics for binary predictions. We show that in…
We investigate the discrimination of two candidates of an unknown parameter in quantum systems with continuous weak measurement, inspired by the application of hypothesis testing in distinguish-ing two Hamiltonians [Kiilerich and M{\o}lmer,…
We give several related versions of global Grothendieck Duality for unbounded complexes on noetherian formal schemes. The proofs, based on a non-trivial adaptation of Deligne's method for the special case of ordinary schemes, are reasonably…
In Clearing Up Mysteries -- The Original Goal (Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods: Cambridge, England, 1988 Springer, pp. 1-27) Jaynes derived Fick's Law for a dilute binary solution from Bayes' Theorem by considering, probabilistically,…
This paper studies Bayesian variable selection in linear models with general spherically symmetric error distributions. We propose sub-harmonic priors which arise as a class of mixtures of Zellner's g-priors for which the Bayes factors are…
External information, such as prior information or expert opinions, can play an important role in the design, analysis and interpretation of clinical trials. However, little attention has been devoted thus far to incorporating external…
In their seminal 1990 paper, Wasserman and Kadane establish an upper bound for the Bayes' posterior probability of a measurable set $A$, when the prior lies in a class of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and the likelihood is precise.…
Model-based clustering of moderate or large dimensional data is notoriously difficult. We propose a model for simultaneous dimensionality reduction and clustering by assuming a mixture model for a set of latent scores, which are then linked…
Many psychological theories that are instantiated as statistical models imply order constraints on the model parameters. To fit and test such restrictions, order constraints of the form $\theta_i \leq \theta_j$ can be reparameterized with…
In a recent preprint (Mosegaard and Curtis, 2024, arXiv:2411.13570v2) we analyzed the consequences of ignoring the well-known inconsistency of classical conditional probability densities. We explained how this inconsistency, together with…
A common task in physics and astronomy is studying which of the competing hypotheses the data prefer. This is usually done by computing the Bayes factor between the two hypotheses, and either interpreting it in terms of the posterior odds…