Related papers: J.B.S. Haldane Could Have Done Better
This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about a parameter when a narrow interval centred at a given value of the parameter is considered special, which is interpreted as meaning that there is a substantial degree…
Bayesian model comparison is often based on the posterior distribution over the set of compared models. This distribution is often observed to concentrate on a single model even when other measures of model fit or forecasting ability…
Bayesian analysis of data from the general linear mixed model is challenging because any nontrivial prior leads to an intractable posterior density. However, if a conditionally conjugate prior density is adopted, then there is a simple…
Data analysis in HEP experiments often uses binned likelihood from data and finite Monte Carlo sample. Statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo sample has been introduced in Frequentist Inference in some literatures, but they are not suitable…
In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…
With an increasing number of replication studies performed in psychological science, the question of how to evaluate the outcome of a replication attempt deserves careful consideration. Bayesian approaches allow to incorporate uncertainty…
A perennial objection against Bayes factor point-null hypothesis tests is that the point-null hypothesis is known to be false from the outset. We examine the consequences of approximating the sharp point-null hypothesis by a hazy…
Expanding a lower-dimensional problem to a higher-dimensional space and then projecting back is often beneficial. This article rigorously investigates this perspective in the context of finite mixture models, namely how to improve inference…
We discuss Bayesian inference for a known-mean Gaussian model with a compound symmetric variance-covariance matrix. Since the space of such matrices is a linear subspace of that of positive definite matrices, we utilize the methods of…
In Bayesian machine learning, conjugate priors are popular, mostly due to mathematical convenience. In this paper, we show that there are deeper reasons for choosing a conjugate prior. Specifically, we formulate the conjugate prior in the…
Bayes [Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 53 (1763) 370--418; 54 296--325] introduced the observed likelihood function to statistical inference and provided a weight function to calibrate the parameter; he also introduced a confidence…
We propose a two-component mixture of a noninformative (diffuse) and an informative prior distribution, weighted through the data in such a way to prefer the first component if a prior-data conflict arises. The data-driven approach for…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a probabilistic interpretation for deep learning models by imposing a prior distribution over model parameters and inferring a posterior distribution based on observed data. The model sampled from the…
We present a new test of hypothesis in which we seek the probability of the null conditioned on the data, where the null is a simplification undertaken to counter the intractability of the more complex model, that the simpler null model is…
Databases often contain corrupted, degraded, and noisy data with duplicate entries across and within each database. Such problems arise in citations, medical databases, genetics, human rights databases, and a variety of other applied…
A standard tool for model selection in a Bayesian framework is the Bayes factor which compares the marginal likelihood of the data under two given different models. In this paper, we consider the class of hierarchical loglinear models for…
This paper extends the work of Clarke [1] on the Bayesian foundations of the biomagnetic inverse problem. It derives expressions for the expectation and variance of the a posteriori source current probability distribution given a prior…
In Bayesian meta-analysis, the specification of prior probabilities for the between-study heterogeneity is commonly required, and is of particular benefit in situations where only few studies are included. Among the considerations in the…
Although Bayes's theorem demands a prior that is a probability distribution on the parameter space, the calculus associated with Bayes's theorem sometimes generates sensible procedures from improper priors, Pitman's estimator being a good…
For many years it was routine to use equal model prior probabilities in Bayesian model uncertainty analysis. At least twenty years ago it became clear that this was problematic, leading to support of much too large models in the…