Related papers: Temperature fluctuations in a changing climate: an…
"Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature…
We argue that earth's short-term temperature anomalies and the solar flare intermittency are linked. The analysis is based upon the study of the scaling of both the spreading and the entropy of the diffusion generated by the fluctuations of…
Ecologists have put forward many explanations for coexistence, but these are only partial explanations; nature is complex, so it is reasonable to assume that in any given ecological community, multiple mechanisms of coexistence are…
To answer the questions of whether global warming is accelerating and when the 1.5{\deg}C Paris Agreement target will be exceeded, the global mean surface temperature from 1880 to 2025 is first examined using a purely graphical approach and…
This paper is devoted to provide a theoretical underpinning for ensemble forecasting with rapid fluctuations in body forcing and in boundary conditions. Ensemble averaging principles are proved under suitable `mixing' conditions on random…
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports indicate that the global mean temperature is about one-degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, that this increase is anthropogenic, and that there is a causal relationship…
Non-local and non-convex energies represent fundamental interacting effects regulating the complex behavior of many systems in biophysics and materials science. We study one dimensional, prototypical schemes able to represent the behavior…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
We analyze global surface temperature data obtained at 13472 weather stations from the year 1702 to 1990. The mean annual temperature of a station fluctuates from year to year by typically +-0.6oC (one standard deviation). Superimposed on…
Phenological timing -- i.e. the course of annually recurring development stages in nature -- is of particular interest since it can be understood as a proxy for the climate at a specific region; moreover changes in the so called…
Cavity point-to-set correlations are real-space tools to detect the roughening of the free-energy landscape that accompanies the dynamical slowdown of glass-forming liquids. Measuring these correlations in model glass formers remains,…
Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the…
Chemically active systems such as living cells are maintained out of thermal equilibrium due to chemical events which generate heat and lead to active fluctuations. A key question is to understand on which time and length scales active…
We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…
We study the relative phase fluctuations of two one-dimensional condensates coupled along their whole extension with a local single-atom interaction. The thermal equilibrium is defined by the competition between independent longitudinal…
The thermodynamics of quantum systems driven out of equilibrium has attracted increasing attention in last the decade, in connection with quantum information and statistical physics, and with a focus on non-classical signatures. While a…
This paper presents two algorithms for calculating an ensemble of solutions to laminar natural convection problems. The ensemble average is the most likely temperature distribution and its variance gives an estimate of prediction…
We consider finite-range, many-body fermionic lattice models and we study the evolution of their thermal equilibrium state after introducing a weak and slowly varying time-dependent perturbation. Under suitable assumptions on the external…
We study full counting statistics for transferred heat and entropy production between multi-terminal systems in absence of a finite junction. The systems are modelled as collections of coupled harmonic oscillators which are kept at…
We consider a particle dragged through a medium at constant temperature as described by a Langevin equation with a time-dependent potential. The time-dependence is specified by an external protocol. We give conditions on potential and…