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Approximate Bayesian inference typically revolves around computing the posterior parameter distribution. In practice, however, the main object of interest is often a model's predictions rather than its parameters. In this work, we propose…
Generalized additive models (GAMs) are a well-established statistical tool for modeling complex nonlinear relationships between covariates and a response assumed to have a conditional distribution in the exponential family. In this article,…
Combinatorial Optimization problems are widespread in domains such as logistics, manufacturing, and drug discovery, yet their NP-hard nature makes them computationally challenging. Recent Neural Combinatorial Optimization methods leverage…
Many inference problems involve inferring the number $N$ of components in some region, along with their properties $\{\mathbf{x}_i\}_{i=1}^N$, from a dataset $\mathcal{D}$. A common statistical example is finite mixture modelling. In the…
We propose a new computationally efficient sampling scheme for Bayesian inference involving high dimensional probability distributions. Our method maps the original parameter space into a low-dimensional latent space, explores the latent…
The Laplace approximation is sometimes not sufficiently accurate for smoothing parameter estimation in generalized additive mixed models. A novel estimation strategy is proposed that solves this problem and leads to estimates exhibiting the…
This paper presents a new Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) that uses convex analysis to simulate efficiently from high-dimensional densities that are log-concave, a class of probability distributions that is widely used in…
Motivated by problems from neuroimaging in which existing approaches make use of "mass univariate" analysis which neglects spatial structure entirely, but the full joint modelling of all quantities of interest is computationally infeasible,…
The Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) is a widely used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling from high-dimensional distributions. However, MALA relies on differentiability assumptions that restrict its…
Traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of hidden Markov models (HMMs) involves latent states underlying an imperfect observation process, and generates posterior samples for top-level parameters concurrently with nuisance…
Inference of latent feature models in the Bayesian nonparametric setting is generally difficult, especially in high dimensional settings, because it usually requires proposing features from some prior distribution. In special cases, where…
We develop Bayesian predictive stacking for geostatistical models, where the primary inferential objective is to provide inference on the latent spatial random field and conduct spatial predictions at arbitrary locations. We exploit…
Bayesian inference on non-Gaussian data is often non-analytic and requires computationally expensive approximations such as sampling or variational inference. We propose an approximate inference framework primarily designed to be…
Latent variable models for ordinal data represent a useful tool in different fields of research in which the constructs of interest are not directly observable. In such models, problems related to the integration of the likelihood function…
Algorithms for exact and approximate inference in stochastic logic programs (SLPs) are presented, based respectively, on variable elimination and importance sampling. We then show how SLPs can be used to represent prior distributions for…
Non-linear state space models are a widely-used class of models for biological, economic, and physical processes. Fitting these models to observed data is a difficult inference problem that has no straightforward solution. We take a…
Spatial modelling often uses Gaussian random fields to capture the stochastic nature of studied phenomena. However, this approach incurs significant computational burdens (O(n3)), primarily due to covariance matrix computations. In this…
The Laplace approximation is an old, but frequently used method to approximate integrals for Bayesian calculations. In this paper we develop an extension of the Laplace approximation, by applying it iteratively to the residual, i.e., the…
Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…
We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to address the challenge of spatial misalignment in spatio-temporal data obtained from in situ and satellite sources. The model is fit using the INLA-SPDE approach, which provides efficient…