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We study a new measure of codependency in the second moment of a continuous-time multivariate asset price process, which we name the realized copula of volatility. The statistic is based on local volatility estimates constructed from…
We propose a multivariate framework for modeling dependent default times that extends the classical Cox process by incorporating both common and idiosyncratic shocks. Our construction uses c\`adl\`ag, increasing processes to model…
The present paper is devoted to the study of a bank salvage model with finite time horizon and subjected to stochastic impulse controls. In our model, the bank's default time is a completely inaccessible random quantity generating its own…
Instance-wise feature selection and ranking methods can achieve a good selection of task-friendly features for each sample in the context of neural networks. However, existing approaches that assume feature subsets to be independent are…
This paper introduces a novel stochastic model for credit spreads. The stochastic approach leverages the diffusion of default intensities via a CIR++ model and is formulated within a risk-neutral probability space. Our research primarily…
We suggest an explanation of typical incubation times statistical features based on the universal behavior of exit times for diffusion models. We give a mathematically rigorous proof of the characteristic right skewness of the incubation…
A positive correlation between exposure and counterparty credit risk gives rise to the so-called Wrong-Way Risk (WWR). Even after a decade of the financial crisis, addressing WWR in both sound and tractable ways remains challenging.…
In the paper we study dynamics of the arbitrage prices of credit default swaps within a hazard process model of credit risk. We derive these dynamics without postulating that the immersion property is satisfied between some relevant…
We study optimal investment in an asset subject to risk of default for investors that rely on different levels of information. The price dynamics can include noises both from a Wiener process and a Poisson random measure with infinite…
We introduce a novel class of credit risk models in which the drift of the survival process of a firm is a linear function of the factors. The prices of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) are linear-rational in the factors.…
We consider a stochastic volatility asset price model in which the volatility is the absolute value of a continuous Gaussian process with arbitrary prescribed mean and covariance. By exhibiting a Karhunen-Lo\`{e}ve expansion for the…
We study time evolution of critical fluctuations of conserved charges near the QCD critical point in the context of relativistic heavy ion collisions. A stochastic diffusion equation is employed in order to describe the diffusion property…
Credit Valuation Adjustment captures the difference in the value of derivative contracts when the counterparty default probability is taken into account. However, in the context of a network of contracts, the default probability of a direct…
In this paper, we compare static and dynamic (reduced form) approaches for modeling wrong-way risk in the context of CVA. Although all these approaches potentially suffer from arbitrage problems, they are popular (respectively) in industry…
The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…
We apply Gaussian process (GP) regression, which provides a powerful non-parametric probabilistic method of relating inputs to outputs, to survival data consisting of time-to-event and covariate measurements. In this context, the covariates…
Copulas have become an important tool in the modern best practice Enterprise Risk Management, often supplanting other approaches to modelling stochastic dependence. However, choosing the `right' copula is not an easy task, and the…
We introduce time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a nonnegative function of a Volterra type continuous Gaussian process that may have very rough sample paths. The main results obtained in…
The issue of model risk in default modeling has been known since inception of the Academic literature in the field. However, a rigorous treatment requires a description of all the possible models, and a measure of the distance between a…
We develop a dynamic point process model of correlated default timing in a portfolio of firms, and analyze typical default profiles in the limit as the size of the pool grows. In our model, a firm defaults at a stochastic intensity that is…