Related papers: Invariance properties in the dynamic gaussian copu…
Motivated by the interplay between structural and reduced form credit models, we propose to model the firm value process as a time-changed Brownian motion that may include jumps and stochastic volatility effects, and to study the first…
This paper introduces a new class of observation driven dynamic models. The time evolving parameters are driven by innovations of copula form. The resulting models can be made strictly stationary and the innovation term is typically chosen…
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, much attention has been paid to investigating the appropriateness of the current practice of default risk modeling in banking, finance and insurance industries. A recent empirical study by…
In this paper, we deal with an axiomatic approach to default risk. We introduce the notion of a default risk measure, which generalizes the classical probability of default (PD), and allows to incorporate model risk in various forms. We…
Filiz et al. (2008) proposed a model for the pattern of defaults seen among a group of firms at the end of a given time period. The ingredients in the model are a graph, where the vertices correspond to the firms and the edges describe the…
We investigate under which conditions a single simulation of joint default times at a final time horizon can be decomposed into a set of simulations of joint defaults on subsequent adjacent sub-periods leading to that final horizon. Besides…
Gaussian copulas are widely used in the industry to correlate two random variables when there is no prior knowledge about the co-dependence between them. The perturbed Gaussian copula approach allows introducing the skew information of both…
We present the qGaussian generalization of the Merton framework, which takes into account slow fluctuations of the volatility of the firms market value of financial assets. The minimal version of the model depends on the Tsallis entropic…
Using one of the key property of copulas that they remain invariant under an arbitrary monotonous change of variable, we investigate the null hypothesis that the dependence between financial assets can be modeled by the Gaussian copula. We…
We extend the information-based asset-pricing framework by Brody, Hughston \& Macrina to incorporate a stochastic bankruptcy time for the writer of the asset. Our model introduces a non-defaultable cash flow $Z_T$ to be made at time $T$,…
This paper examines the valuation and hedging of standard equity protection swap (EPS) products proposed by Xu et al.. To account for financial crises and counterparty default risk, we develop pricing frameworks based on Merton's…
In this paper we present a novel approach for firm default probability estimation. The methodology is based on multivariate contingent claim analysis and pair copula constructions. For each considered firm, balance sheet data are used to…
We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…
In the pursuit of modelling a loan's probability of default (PD) over its lifetime, repeat default events are often ignored when using Cox Proportional Hazard (PH) models. Excluding such events may produce biased and inaccurate…
The Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model is mathematically presented and then used in a Credit-Equity hybrid framework. Next, we propose extensions to the CEV model with default: firstly by adding a stochastic volatility diffusion…
We consider a structural default model in an interconnected banking network as in Lipton [International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 19(6), 2016], with mutual obligations between each pair of banks. We analyse the model…
First passage models, where corporate assets undergo correlated random walks and a company defaults if its assets fall below a threshold provide an attractive framework for modeling the default process. Typical one year default correlations…
Survival analysis has become a standard approach for modelling time to default by time-varying covariates in credit risk. Unlike most existing methods that implicitly assume a stationary data-generating process, in practise, mortgage…
We provide a new characterization of law-invariant backward stochastic differential equations (i.e. BSDEs) with quadratic growth. This answers the open question raised in Xu--Xu--Zhou (2022) on necessary conditions for law-invariance of…
We consider the problem of modelling the term structure of defaultable bonds, under minimal assumptions on the default time. In particular, we do not assume the existence of a default intensity and we therefore allow for the possibility of…