Related papers: Precise deviations for Hawkes processes
In this paper we introduce two new Hawkes processes, namely, compound and regime-switching compound Hawkes processes, to model the price processes in limit order books. We prove Law of Large Numbers and Functional Central Limit Theorems…
We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process with constraints on its conditional density. It is a multivariate point process with conditional intensity similar to that of a multivariate Hawkes process but certain events are forbidden with…
The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…
We consider the problem of learning the network of mutual excitations (i.e., the dependency graph) in a non-stationary, multivariate Hawkes process. We consider a general setting where baseline rates at each node are time-varying and delay…
We study by computer simulation the "Hawkes process" that was proposed in a recent paper by Crane and Sornette (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 105, 15649 (2008)) as a plausible model for the dynamics of YouTube video viewing numbers. We test the…
This paper presents a parametric estimation method for ill-observed linear stationary Hawkes processes. When the exact locations of points are not observed, but only counts over time intervals of fixed size, methods based on the likelihood…
The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in…
The aim of this paper is to provide a new method for the detection of either favored or avoided distances between genomic events along DNA sequences. These events are modeled by a Hawkes process. The biological problem is actually complex…
We consider particle systems (also known as point processes) on the line and in the plane, and are particularly interested in "hole" events, when there are no particles in a large disk (or some other domain). We survey the extensive work on…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification.…
Over the past few decades, the Hawkes process has become a popular framework for modeling temporal events thanks to its flexibility to capture different dependency structures. The objective of this work is to model call sequences emitted by…
We introduce a Hawkes-like process and study its scaling limit as the system becomes increasingly endogenous. We derive functional limit theorems for intensity and fluctuations. Then, we introduce a high-frequency model for a price of a…
Given a stationary point process, an intensity burst is defined as a short time period during which the number of counts is larger than the typical count rate. It might signal a local non-stationarity or the presence of an external…
We show that univariate and symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes are only weakly causal: the true log-likelihoods of real and reversed event time vectors are almost equal, thus parameter estimation via maximum likelihood only weakly…
We construct a two-tailed peak-over-threshold Hawkes model that captures asymmetric self- and cross-excitation in and between left- and right-tail extreme values within a time series. We demonstrate its applicability by investigating…
We consider a Cox process with Poisson shot noise intensity which has been widely applied in insurance, finance, queue theory, statistic, and many other fields. Cox process is flexible because its intensity depends on not only the time but…
We introduce and establish the main properties of QHawkes ("Quadratic" Hawkes) models. QHawkes models generalize the Hawkes price models introduced in E. Bacry et al. (2014), by allowing all feedback effects in the jump intensity that are…
This study explores contagion in the Chinese stock market using Hawkes processes to analyze autocorrelation and cross-correlation in multivariate time series data. We examine whether market indices exhibit trending behavior and whether…
The order flow in high-frequency financial markets has been of particular research interest in recent years, as it provides insights into trading and order execution strategies and leads to better understanding of the supply-demand…
Let $F$ be a distribution function on $\mathbb{R}$ with $F(0) = 0 $ and density $f$. Let $\tilde{F}$ be the distribution function of $X_1 - X_2$, $X_i\sim F,\, i=1,2,\text{ iid}$. We show that for a critical Hawkes process with displacement…