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We develop a general framework for state estimation in systems modeled with noise-polluted continuous time dynamics and discrete time noisy measurements. Our approach is based on maximum likelihood estimation and employs the calculus of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-16 Griffin M. Kearney , Makan Fardad

Using a perturbation technique, we derive a new approximate filtering and smoothing methodology generalizing along different directions several existing approaches to robust filtering based on the score and the Hessian matrix of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-06 Giuseppe Buccheri , Giacomo Bormetti , Fulvio Corsi , Fabrizio Lillo

This study presents a Bayesian maximum \textit{a~posteriori} (MAP) framework for dynamical system identification from time-series data. This is shown to be equivalent to a generalized Tikhonov regularization, providing a rational…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-29 Robert K. Niven , Laurent Cordier , Ali Mohammad-Djafari , Markus Abel , Markus Quade

We propose a data-driven algorithm for the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation of stochastic processes from noisy observations. The primary statistical properties of the sought signal is specified by the penalty function (i.e., negative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-14 Ha Q. Nguyen , Emrah Bostan , Michael Unser

Filtering and smoothing algorithms for linear discrete-time state-space models with skew-t-distributed measurement noise are proposed. The algorithms use a variational Bayes based posterior approximation with coupled location and skewness…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-11-28 Henri Nurminen , Tohid Ardeshiri , Robert Piché , Fredrik Gustafsson

This work proposes a decision-making framework for partially observable systems in continuous time with discrete state and action spaces. As optimal decision-making becomes intractable for large state spaces we employ approximation methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-01 Yannick Eich , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

This paper proposes a parallel-in-time method for computing continuous-time maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) trajectory estimates of the states of partially observed stochastic differential equations (SDEs), with the goal of improving…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Hassan Razavi , Ángel F. García-Fernández , Simo Särkkä

Many natural systems exhibit chaotic behaviour such as the weather, hydrology, neuroscience and population dynamics. Although many chaotic systems can be described by relatively simple dynamical equations, characterizing these systems can…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-06-15 H. Ribera , S. Shirman , A. V. Nguyen , N. M. Mangan

We consider estimating the transition probability matrix of a finite-state finite-observation alphabet hidden Markov model with known observation probabilities. The main contribution is a two-step algorithm; a method of moments estimator…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-11-22 Robert Mattila , Cristian R. Rojas , Vikram Krishnamurthy , Bo Wahlberg

We present a new method for locating unstable periodic points of one dimensional chaotic maps. This method is based on order statistics. The densities of various maxima of the iterates are discontinuous exactly at unstable periodic points…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 M. C. Valsakumar , S. V. M. Satyanarayana , S. Kanmani

The relative degree limitation for adaptive observer-based synchronization schemes is overcome. The scheme is extended to nonpassifiable systems. Two synchronization methods are described and justified based on augmented error adaptive…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2007-05-23 V. O. Nikiforov , A. L. Fradkov , B. R. Andrievsky

Constraining a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with observations via 4D variational (4D-Var) data assimilation is often difficult to implement in practice due to the need to develop and maintain a software-based tangent linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-07 Kylen Solvik , Stephen G. Penny , Stephan Hoyer

In this review/tutorial article, we present recent progress on optimal control of partially observed Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). We first present regularity and continuity conditions for POMDPs and their belief-MDP reductions, where…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-03 Ali Devran Kara , Serdar Yuksel

The replica method is a non-rigorous but well-known technique from statistical physics used in the asymptotic analysis of large, random, nonlinear problems. This paper applies the replica method, under the assumption of replica symmetry, to…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-01-20 Sundeep Rangan , Alyson K. Fletcher , Vivek K Goyal

In this paper, we propose a novel approximation strategy for time-dependent hyperbolic systems of conservation laws for the Euler system of gas dynamics that aims to represent the dynamics of strong interacting discontinuities. The goal of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-16 Paola Bacigaluppi , Rémi Abgrall , Svetlana Tokareva

This work develops novel strategies for optimal planning with semantic observations using continuous state partially observable markov decision processes (CPOMDPs). Two major innovations are presented in relation to Gaussian mixture (GM)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-08-09 Luke Burks , Ian Loefgren , Nisar Ahmed

In this paper, we propose new methods to efficiently solve convex optimization problems encountered in sparse estimation, which include a new quasi-Newton method that avoids computing the Hessian matrix and improves efficiency, and we prove…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-06 Ryosuke Shimmura , Joe Suzuki

An efficient estimator is constructed for the quadratic covariation or integrated co-volatility matrix of a multivariate continuous martingale based on noisy and nonsynchronous observations under high-frequency asymptotics. Our approach…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-07-02 Markus Bibinger , Nikolaus Hautsch , Peter Malec , Markus Reiß

The goal of this paper is to study approaches to bridge the gap between first-order and second-order type methods for composite convex programs. Our key observations are: i) Many well-known operator splitting methods, such as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-09-27 Xiantao Xiao , Yongfeng Li , Zaiwen Wen , Liwei Zhang

We consider the inverse problem of estimating an unknown function $u$ from noisy measurements $y$ of a known, possibly nonlinear, map $\mathcal{G}$ applied to $u$. We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem and work in a setting where the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-20 Masoumeh Dashti , Kody J. H. Law , Andrew M. Stuart , Jochen Voss