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Although the risk posed to spacecraft due to meteoroid impacts is dominated by sporadic meteoroids, meteor showers can raise this risk for short periods of time. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office issues meteor shower forecasts that…
Meteor showers on the Earth occur at well known times, and are associated with the decay of comets or other minor bodies whose orbital paths pass close to the Earth's trajectory. On the surface, determining the closest proximity of two…
The objectives of this project are to predict new meteor showers associated with as many as possible known periodic comets and to find a generic relationship of some already known showers with these comets. For a potential parent comet, we…
Earth occasionally crosses the debris streams produced by comets and other active bodies in our solar system. These manifest meteor showers that provide an opportunity to explore these bodies without a need to visit them in-situ.…
NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) produces an annual meteor shower forecast in order to help spacecraft operators assess the risk posed by meteoroid streams. Previously, this forecast focused on the International Space Station and…
A method for estimating the true meteor rate \lambda\ from a small number of observed meteors n is derived. We employ Bayesian inference with a Poissonian likelihood function. We discuss the choice of a suitable prior and propose the…
The prediction of solar flares, eruptions, and high energy particle storms is of great societal importance. The data mining approach to forecasting has been shown to be very promising. Benchmark datasets are a key element in the further…
Models of the Universe like the Concordance Model today used to interpret cosmological observations give expectation values for many cosmological observable so accurate that frequently peoples speak of Precision Cosmology. The quoted…
The rate at which meteors pass through Earth's atmosphere has been measured or estimated many times over; existing flux measurements span at least 12 astronomical magnitudes, or roughly five decades in mass. Unfortunately, the common…
At high energy, cosmic rays can only be studied by measuring the extensive air showers they produce in the atmosphere of the Earth. Although the main features of air showers can be understood within a simple model of successive…
Knowing when a classifier's prediction can be trusted is useful in many applications and critical for safely using AI. While the bulk of the effort in machine learning research has been towards improving classifier performance,…
Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: How good are seasonal climate forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we…
As of today, there is no official definition of a meteor cluster. It is usually identified as a large number of meteors sharing a similar radiant and velocity, all occurring within a few seconds. Only eight clusters have been reported so…
Developing methods to predict disastrous natural phenomena is more important than ever, and tornadoes are among the most dangerous ones in nature. Due to the unpredictability of the weather, counteracting them is not an easy task and today…
It is known from theory that, by means of a plasma physics approach, it is possible to obtain a simple formula to calculate the approximate height of a meteor (Foschini, 1999). This formula can be used in case of forward scatter of radio…
Ecological forecasts are model-based statements about currently unknown ecosystem states in time or space. For a model forecast to be useful to inform decision makers, model validation and verification determine adequateness. The measure of…
Disturbances in space weather can negatively affect several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are the most…
Every moment, countless meteoroids enter our atmosphere unseen. The detection and measurement of meteors offer the unique opportunity to gain insights into the composition of our solar systems' celestial bodies. Researchers, therefore,…
Meteorological forecasting provides reliable prediction about the future weather within a given interval of time. Meteorological forecasting can be viewed as a form of hybrid diagnostic reasoning and can be mapped onto an integrated…
Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…