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Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Under the standard IV model, however, the average treatment effect (ATE) is only partially identifiable. To address this,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

A notable challenge of leveraging Electronic Health Records (EHR) for treatment effect assessment is the lack of precise information on important clinical variables, including the treatment received and the response. Both treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Jue Hou , Rajarshi Mukherjee , Tianxi Cai

When designing and evaluating an experiment or observational study, it is useful to have a realistic hypothesis regarding the average treatment effect. We present an approach to conceptualizing this average by first considering a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Andrew Gelman , Amy Krefman , Lauren Kennedy , Jessica Hullman

The aim of clinical effectiveness research using repositories of electronic health records is to identify what health interventions 'work best' in real-world settings. Since there are several reasons why the net benefit of intervention may…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-19 Jie Zhu , Blanca Gallego

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-08 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

This study designs an adaptive experiment for efficiently estimating average treatment effects (ATEs). In each round of our adaptive experiment, an experimenter sequentially samples an experimental unit, assigns a treatment, and observes…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Masahiro Kato , Akihiro Oga , Wataru Komatsubara , Ryo Inokuchi

This paper develops an empirical balancing approach for the estimation of treatment effects under two-sided noncompliance using a binary conditionally independent instrumental variable. The method weighs both treatment and outcome…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-10 Phillip Heiler

Statistical models that include random effects are commonly used to analyze longitudinal and correlated data, often with strong and parametric assumptions about the random effects distribution. There is marked disagreement in the literature…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-11 Charles E. McCulloch , John M. Neuhaus

Kernel matching is a widely used technique for estimating treatment effects, particularly valuable in observational studies where randomized controlled trials are not feasible. While kernel-matching approaches have demonstrated practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-11 Chong Ding , Zheng Li , Hon Keung Tony Ng , Wei Gao

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-18 Saksham Jain , Alex Luedtke

Meta-analysis is commonly used to combine results from multiple clinical trials, but traditional meta-analysis methods do not refer explicitly to a population of individuals to whom the results apply and it is not clear how to use their…

Researchers are often interested in analyzing conditional treatment effects. One variant of this is "causal moderation," which implies that intervention upon a third (moderator) variable would alter the treatment effect. This study…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-25 Kirk Bansak

In many social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences, treatment effect estimation is a crucial step in understanding the impact of an intervention, policy, or treatment. In recent years, an increasing emphasis has been placed on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Xinhai Zhang , Xingye Qiao

We consider estimation and inference on average treatment effects under unconfoundedness conditional on the realizations of the treatment variable and covariates. Given nonparametric smoothness and/or shape restrictions on the conditional…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-04 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár

In randomized experiments, the actual treatments received by some experimental units may differ from their treatment assignments. This non-compliance issue often occurs in clinical trials, social experiments, and the applications of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-19 Jiyang Ren

Applied researchers are increasingly interested in whether and how treatment effects vary in randomized evaluations, especially variation not explained by observed covariates. We propose a model-free approach for testing for the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-17 Peng Ding , Avi Feller , Luke Miratrix

The average treatment effect (ATE) is commonly used to quantify the main effect of a binary treatment on an outcome. Extensions to continuous treatments are usually based on the dose-response curve or shift interventions, but both require…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-02 Oliver J. Hines , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Stijn Vansteelandt

An essential goal of program evaluation and scientific research is the investigation of causal mechanisms. Over the past several decades, causal mediation analysis has been used in medical and social sciences to decompose the treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-15 K. C. G. Chan , K. Imai , S. C. P. Yam , Z. Zhang

Individualized treatment rules, cornerstones of precision medicine, inform patient treatment decisions with the goal of optimizing patient outcomes. These rules are generally unknown functions of patients' pre-treatment covariates, meaning…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-23 Philippe Boileau , Ning Leng , Sandrine Dudoit

Researchers are frequently interested in understanding the causal effect of treatment interventions. However, in some cases, the treatment of interest--readily available in a randomized controlled trial (RCT)--is either not directly…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-29 Lan Wen , Aaron L Sarvet