Related papers: Statistical inference for misspecified ergodic L\'…
We develop sampling methods, which consist of Gaussian invariant versions of random walk Metropolis (RWM), Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and second order Hessian or Manifold MALA. Unlike standard RWM and MALA we show that…
We propose an unbiased Monte-Carlo estimator for $\mathbb{E}[g(X_{t_1}, \cdots, X_{t_n})]$, where $X$ is a diffusion process defined by a multi-dimensional stochastic differential equation (SDE). The main idea is to start instead from a…
In this paper we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to a class of partially observed stochastic differential equations (SDE) driven by jump processes. Such type of models can be routinely found in applications, of which we…
This paper studies the quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator (QMLE) in a general conditionally heteroscedastic time series model of multiplicative form $X_t=\sigma_tZ_t$, where the unobservable volatility $\sigma_t$ is a parametric function of…
Strongly nonlinear flows, which commonly arise in geophysical and engineering turbulence, are characterized by persistent and intermittent energy transfer between various spatial and temporal scales. These systems are difficult to model and…
We consider a class of misspecified dynamical models where the governing term is only approximately known. Under the assumption that observations of the system's evolution are accessible for various initial conditions, our goal is to infer…
Stationary points embedded in the derivatives are often critical for a model to be interpretable and may be considered as key features of interest in many applications. We propose a semiparametric Bayesian model to efficiently infer the…
We develop a unified PDE-probabilistic framework for pointwise gradient and Hessian estimates of Markov semigroups associated with stochastic differential equations with singular and unbounded coefficients. Under mild local structural…
The problem of parameter estimation by i.i.d. observations of an inhomogeneous Poisson process is considered in situation of misspecification. The model is that of a Poissonian signal observed in presence of a homogeneous Poissonian noise.…
The likelihood functions for discretely observed nonlinear continuous-time models based on stochastic differential equations are not available except for a few cases. Various parameter estimation techniques have been proposed, each with…
Stochastic differential equations and stochastic dynamics are good models to describe stochastic phenomena in real world. In this paper, we study N independent stochastic processes Xi(t) with real entries and the processes are determined by…
Macroscopic models for spatially extended systems under random influences are often described by stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Some techniques for understanding solutions of such equations, such as estimating…
In this paper we consider the nonparametric functional estimation of the drift of Gaussian processes using Paley-Wiener and Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansions. We construct efficient estimators for the drift of such processes, and prove their…
We study the problem of parameter estimation for a non-ergodic Gaussian Vasicek-type model defined as $dX_t=(\mu+\theta X_t)dt+dG_t,\ t\geq0$ with unknown parameters $\theta>0$ and $\mu\in\mathbb{R}$, where $G$ is a Gaussian process. We…
Gaussian processes are ubiquitous in machine learning, statistics, and applied mathematics. They provide a flexible modelling framework for approximating functions, whilst simultaneously quantifying uncertainty. However, this is only true…
In this paper we present nonparametric estimators for coefficients in stochastic differential equation if the data are described by independent, identically distributed random variables. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear ill-posed…
For many applications with multivariate data, random field models capturing departures from Gaussianity within realisations are appropriate. For this reason, we formulate a new class of multivariate non-Gaussian models based on systems of…
This paper proposes a semiparametric stochastic volatility (SV) model that relaxes the restrictive Gaussian assumption in both the return and volatility error terms, allowing them to follow flexible, nonparametric distributions with…
Via a Bismut-Elworthy-Li formula from [KPP23], we derive uniform gradient estimates for transition semigroups associated with stochastic differential equations driven by a large class of cylindrical L\'{e}vy processes which includes the…
The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we derive upper and lower non-Gaussian bounds for the densities of the marginal laws of the solutions to backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) driven by fractional Brownian motions.…