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The task of calibration is to retrospectively adjust the outputs from a machine learning model to provide better probability estimates on the target variable. While calibration has been investigated thoroughly in classification, it has not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-21 Hao Song , Meelis Kull , Peter Flach

No matter the nature of the response and/or explanatory variables in a regression model, some basic issues such as the existence of an effect of the predictor on the response, or the assessment of a common shape across groups of…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-01 María Alonso-Pena , Jose Ameijeiras-Alonso , Rosa M. Crujeiras

It is no secret that statistical modelling often involves making simplifying assumptions when attempting to study complex stochastic phenomena. Spatial modelling of extreme values is no exception, with one of the most common such…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-05 Lydia Kakampakou , Emma S. Simpson , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

In many environmental applications involving spatially-referenced data, limitations on the number and locations of observations motivate the need for practical and efficient models for spatial interpolation, or kriging. A key component of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-15 Mark D. Risser , Catherine A. Calder

In this paper, we develop a new and effective approach to nonparametric quantile regression that accommodates ultrahigh-dimensional data arising from spatio-temporal processes. This approach proves advantageous in staving off computational…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-27 Soudeep Deb , Claudia Neves , Subhrajyoty Roy

Regression splines are largely used to investigate and predict data behavior, attracting the interest of mathematicians for their beautiful numerical properties, and of statisticians for their versatility with respect to the applications.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-09 Rosanna Campagna , Serena Crisci , Gabriele Santin , Gerardo Toraldo , Marco Viola

In the context of nonparametric regression models with one-sided errors, we consider parametric transformations of the response variable in order to obtain independence between the errors and the covariates. We focus in this paper on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-31 Natalie Neumeyer , Leonie Selk , Charles Tillier

We consider the nonparametric estimation of an S-shaped regression function. The least squares estimator provides a very natural, tuning-free approach, but results in a non-convex optimisation problem, since the inflection point is unknown.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Oliver Y. Feng , Yining Chen , Qiyang Han , Raymond J. Carroll , Richard J. Samworth

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Ethan YoungIn Shin , Baris Kale , Michael F. Howland

Traditional methods for high-dimensional diffeomorphic mapping often struggle with the curse of dimensionality. We propose a mesh-free learning framework designed for $n$-dimensional mapping problems, seamlessly combining variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-05 Zhiwen Li , Cheuk Hin Ho , Lok Ming Lui

To understand how the interconnected and interdependent world of the twenty-first century operates and make model-based predictions, joint probability models for networks and interdependent outcomes are needed. We propose a comprehensive…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Cornelius Fritz , Michael Schweinberger , Subhankar Bhadra , David R. Hunter

The failure of roughness parameters to predict surface properties stems from their inherent scale-dependence; in other words, the measured value depends on the way it was measured. Here we take advantage of this scale-dependence to develop…

Materials Science · Physics 2021-12-14 Antoine Sanner , Wolfram G. Nöhring , Luke A. Thimons , Tevis D. B. Jacobs , Lars Pastewka

In this paper we present the framework of symmetry in nonparametric regression. This generalises the framework of covariate sparsity, where the regression function depends only on at most $s < d$ of the covariates, which is a special case…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-22 Louis G. Christie , John A. D. Aston

Nonparanormal models describe the joint distribution of multivariate responses via latent Gaussian, and thus parametric, copulae while allowing flexible nonparametric marginals. Some aspects of such distributions, for example conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Torsten Hothorn

Modern multivariate machine learning and statistical methodologies estimate parameters of interest while leveraging prior knowledge of the association between outcome variables. The methods that do allow for estimation of relationships do…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-10 Ben Sherwood , Bradley S. Price

In this paper we develop a nonparametric regression method that is simultaneously adaptive over a wide range of function classes for the regression function and robust over a large collection of error distributions, including those that are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-10-28 Lawrence D. Brown , T. Tony Cai , Harrison H. Zhou

We propose a flexible nonparametric regression method for ultrahigh-dimensional data. As a first step, we propose a fast screening method based on the favored smoothing bandwidth of the marginal local constant regression. Then, an iterative…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-30 Yang Feng , Yichao Wu , Leonard Stefanski

In a recent paper, we analyzed the properties of a new kind of spherical wavelets (called needlets) for statistical inference procedures on spherical random fields; the investigation was mainly motivated by applications to cosmological…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-06-12 P. Baldi , G. Kerkyacharian , D. Marinucci , D. Picard

Non-stationary extremal dependence, whereby the relationship between the extremes of multiple variables evolves over time, is commonly observed in many environmental and financial data sets. However, most multivariate extreme value models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-29 C. J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , J. L. Wadsworth , M. de Carvalho , B. D. Youngman

In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-19 Michael Vogt