Related papers: A deterministic model for forecasting long-term so…
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, can generate severe hazardous radiation when accelerated by solar flares or shock waves formed aside from coronal mass ejections (CMEs).…
It is well accepted that the solar cycle originates from a magnetohydrodynamics dynamo deep inside the Sun. Many dynamo models have long been proposed based on a lot of observational constraints. In this paper, using 342 NSO/Kitt Peak solar…
Solar flares are among the most severe space weather phenomena, and they have the capacity to generate radiation storms and radio disruptions on Earth. The accurate prediction of solar flare events remains a significant challenge, requiring…
Aims. The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity…
We present a method of chromospheric flux simulation for 13 late-type main-sequence stars. These Sun-like stars have well-determined cyclic flux variations similar to 11 yr solar activity cycle. Our flux prediction is based on chromospheric…
We present in this reference paper an instrumental project dedicated to the monitoring of solar activity during solar cycle 25. It concerns the survey of fast evolving chromospheric events implied in Space Weather, such as flares, coronal…
The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum). It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects…
The Schwabe (~11 yr) value for the annual sunspot number is sometimes uncritically applied to other measures of solar activity, direct and indirect, including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the inflow of galactic cosmic rays, solar flare…
This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems…
We developed a flare prediction model using machine learning, which is optimized to predict the maximum class of flares occurring in the following 24 h. Machine learning is used to devise algorithms that can learn from and make decisions on…
We present a new approach to study the properties of the sun. We consider small variations of the physical and chemical properties of the sun with respect to Standard Solar Model predictions and we linearize the structure equations to…
Observations over the past two solar cycles show a highly irregular pattern of occurrence for major solar flares, gamma-ray events, and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluences. Such phenomena do not appear to follow the direct indices of…
The Sun provides the energy required to sustain life on Earth and drive our planet's atmospheric circulation. However, establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge…
Understanding the origin and long-term evolution of the Solar System is a fundamental goal of planetary science and astrophysics. This chapter describes our current understanding of the key processes that shaped our planetary system,…
Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society. Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo. Interested in…
The sunspot record since 1749 is made of three major cycles (9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 yr). The side frequencies are related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (9.93 yr) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (11.86 yr). A…
We argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess-de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can be…
The terrestrial fossil record shows a significant variation in the extinction and origination rates of species during the past half billion years. Numerous studies have claimed an association between this variation and the motion of the Sun…
Sunspots or active regions (ARs) with a delta-magnetic configuration are known to be associated with strong eruptions such as flares and mass ejections. This article investigates the relationship between delta-ARs and flares over the course…
We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept.…