Related papers: A deterministic model for forecasting long-term so…
Solar flares, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, have a profound impact on both the Earth's space environment and human activities. As a result, accurate solar flare prediction has emerged as a central topic in…
Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in…
We explore the effect of some simple perturbations on three chaotic models proposed to describe large scale solar behavior via the solar dynamo theory: the Lorenz and the Rikitake systems, and a Van der Pol-Duffing oscillator. Planetary…
We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events due to their high sensitivity to their embedded…
We aim to better characterize the conditions of the solar corona, especially with respect to the occurrence of confined and eruptive flares. In this work, we model the coronal evolution around 231 large flares observed during solar cycle…
The sunspot number data during the past 400 years indicates that both the profile and the amplitude of the solar cycle have large variations. Some precursors of the solar cycle were identified aiming to predict the solar cycle. The polar…
Detailed study of the solar magnetic field is crucial to understand its generation, transport and reversals. The timing of the reversals may have implications on space weather and thus identification of the temporal behavior of the critical…
One prominent feature of solar cycle is its irregular variation in its cycle strength, making it challenging to predict the amplitude of the next cycle. Studies show that fluctuations and nonlinearity in generating poloidal field throughout…
Operational flare forecasting aims at providing predictions that can be used to make decisions, typically at a daily scale, about the space weather impacts of flare occurrence. This study shows that video-based deep learning can be used for…
We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…
The relationships between solar flare parameters (total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux) and sunspot activity (Rz) as well as those between geomagnetic activity (aa index) and the flare parameters can be well described by…
The record of solar activity is reviewed here with emphasis on peculiarities. Since sunspot positions tell us a lot more about the solar dynamo than the various global sunspot numbers, we first focus on the records of telescopic…
The appearance of dark sunspots over the solar photosphere is not considered to be symmetric between the northern and southern hemispheres. Among the different conclusions obtained by several authors, we can point out that the North-South…
Accurate prediction of solar activity calls for precise calibration of solar cycle models. Consequently we aim to find optimal parameters for models which describe the physical processes on the solar surface, which in turn act as proxies…
Over the past century, the Sun's activity -- which exhibits significant variations -- went through a phase known as the Modern Maximum. Notably, the strongest sunspot cycle on record during this period, and indeed since direct sunspot…
The solar northern and southern hemispheres exhibit differences between the intensities and time profiles of the activity cycles. The time variation of these properties has been studied in a previous article on the data of Cycles 12-23. The…
The solar meridional flow is an important ingredient in Babcock-Leighton type models of the solar dynamo. Global variations of this flow have been suggested to explain the variations in the amplitudes and lengths of the activity cycles.…
The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity.…
Rieger et al (1984) reported observations of a 154 day periodicity in flares during solar cycle 21. This paper discusses the observations in the light of a simple empirical planetary model of sunspot emergence. The planetary model predicts…
This note deals with a multivariate stochastic approach to forecast the behaviour of a cyclic time series. Particular attention is devoted to the problem of the prediction of time behaviour of sunspot numbers for the current 23th cycle. The…