Related papers: A deterministic model for forecasting long-term so…
Solar activity has a cyclic nature with the ~11-year Schwabe cycle dominating its variability on the interannual timescale. However, solar cycles are significantly modulated in length, shape and magnitude, from near-spotless grand minima to…
This work investigates the solar quasi-periodic cycles with multi-timescales and the possible relationships with planetary motions. The solar cycles are derived from long-term observations of the relative sunspot number and microwave…
We present a hybrid forecasting strategy that combines numerical modeling, statistical forecasting, and machine learning methods to predict enhanced bursts of solar activity. These bursts, referred to here as space weather seasons, occur on…
Convection, differential rotation, and meridional circulation of solar plasma are studied based on helioseismic data covering the period from May 2010 to August 2024, significantly prolonged compared to that previously considered. Depth…
One obvious feature of the solar cycle is its variation from one cycle to another. In this article, we review the dynamo models for the long-term variations of the solar cycle. By long-term variations, we mean the cycle modulations beyond…
Solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and the amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factors of such a harmonic oscillator are estimated by non-linear fitting the equation of sinusoidal and transient parts to…
The Sun exhibits an 11-year cyclic variation, maintained by dynamo action in the solar interior. Mean-field flux transport dynamo models have successfully reproduced most of the features observed in solar cycles, while the model includes…
Solar activity is studied using a cluster analysis of the time-fluctuations of the sunspot number. It is shown that in an Historic period the high activity components of the solar cycles exhibit strong clustering, whereas in a Modern period…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an…
The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the…
Modeling of transient events in the solar atmosphere requires the confluence of 3 critical elements: (1) model sophistication, (2) data availability, and (3) data assimilation. This white paper describes required advances that will enable…
Solar quasi-biennial oscillations with period range 0.6 to 4 years, are prominent in records of solar activity. Here we show that the 1.6 year quasi-biennial oscillation in solar activity has the exceptional feature of phase inversion…
The Sun is the major source of heat and light in our solar system. The solar cycle is the 11-year cycle of solar activity that can be determined by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. Solar activity is associated…
Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…
Magneto-Rossby waves in the solar tachocline are currently considered to be one of the main determinants of solar activity. In particular, they can give rise to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The latter was recently shown to be…
The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the…
Commenting the 11-year sunspot cycle, Wolf (1859, MNRAS 19, 85-86) conjectured that "the variations of spot frequency depend on the influences of Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn". The high synchronization of our planetary system is…
The large (X-ray class > M1) and very large (X-ray class >X1) flares (according to the observations of GOES-15 and Preliminary data from Current Catalog of Flare Events) in solar activity cycle 24 were analyzed. The monthly average values…
A model based on celestial geometry and atmospheric physics predicts the dimming and the color of lunar eclipses. Corresponding visual magnitudes and color indices for eclipses from year 2000 through 2050 are listed. The enlargement of the…
This thesis assesses the influence of astronomical phenomena on the Earth's biosphere and climate. I examine in particular the relevance of both the path of the Sun through the Galaxy and the evolution of the Earth's orbital parameters in…