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We describe a variational approximation method for efficient inference in large-scale probabilistic models. Variational methods are deterministic procedures that provide approximations to marginal and conditional probabilities of interest.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-05-30 T. S. Jaakkola , M. I. Jordan

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

The study of probabilistic models for the analysis of complex networks represents a flourishing research field. Among the former, Exponential Random Graphs (ERGs) have gained increasing attention over the years. So far, only linear ERGs…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-02-10 Mattia Marzi , Francesca Giuffrida , Diego Garlaschelli , Tiziano Squartini

Random graphs, where the connections between nodes are considered random variables, have wide applicability in the social sciences. Exponential-family Random Graph Models (ERGM) have shown themselves to be a useful class of models for…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-08-02 Ian Fellows , Mark S. Handcock

Exponential-family random graph models (ERGMs) provide a principled way to model and simulate features common in human social networks, such as propensities for homophily and friend-of-a-friend triad closure. We show that, without…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-09 Pavel N. Krivitsky , Mark S. Handcock , Martina Morris

Graphical Gaussian models have proven to be useful tools for exploring network structures based on multivariate data. Applications to studies of gene expression have generated substantial interest in these models, and resulting recent…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-08-10 Michael Finegold , Mathias Drton

We study the expected adjacency matrix of a uniformly random multigraph with fixed degree sequence $\mathbf{d} \in \mathbb{Z}_+^n$. This matrix arises in a variety of analyses of networked data sets, including modularity-maximization and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-02-10 Philip S. Chodrow

Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) behave peculiar in large networks with thousand(s) of actors (nodes). Standard models containing two-star or triangle counts as statistics are often unstable leading to completely full or empty…

Applications · Statistics 2016-04-19 Stephanie Thiemichen , Göran Kauermann

Randomized neural networks (NNs) are an interesting alternative to conventional NNs that are more used for data modeling. The random vector functional-link (RVFL) network is an established and theoretically well-grounded randomized learning…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-24 Hien D. Nguyen , Dianhui Wang , Geoffrey J. McLachlan

We propose a perturbative method to estimate the normalization constant in exponential random graph models as the weighting parameters approach infinity. As an application, we give evidence of discontinuity in natural parametrization along…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Rajinder Mavi , Mei Yin

We show that a large class of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms, including, but not limited to, Covariance Matrix Adaption, can be written as a Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and as exact EM in the limit of infinite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 David H. Brookes , Akosua Busia , Clara Fannjiang , Kevin Murphy , Jennifer Listgarten

An important question in statistical network analysis is how to estimate models of discrete and dependent network data with intractable likelihood functions, without sacrificing computational scalability and statistical guarantees. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-06 Jonathan R. Stewart , Michael Schweinberger

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are flexible probabilistic frameworks to model statistical networks through a variety of network summary statistics. Conventional Bayesian estimation for ERGMs involves iteratively exchanging with an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Yefeng Fan , Simon White

We explore past and recent developments in rare-event probability estimation with a particular focus on a novel Monte Carlo technique Empirical Likelihood Maximization (ELM). This is a versatile method that involves sampling from a sequence…

Computation · Statistics 2013-12-12 A. Huang , Z. I. Botev

We derive normal approximation bounds in the Wasserstein distance for sums of weighted U-statistics, based on a general distance bound for functionals of independent random variables of arbitrary distributions. Those bounds are applied to…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Nicolas Privault , Grzegorz Serafin

Exponential-family random graph models (ERGMs) provide a principled and flexible way to model and simulate features common in social networks, such as propensities for homophily, mutuality, and friend-of-a-friend triad closure, through…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-08-01 Pavel N. Krivitsky

We introduce a method for the theoretical analysis of exponential random graph models. The method is based on a large-deviations approximation to the normalizing constant shown to be consistent using theory developed by Chatterjee and…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-11-21 Sourav Chatterjee , Persi Diaconis

We propose and analyse a novel nonparametric goodness of fit testing procedure for exchangeable exponential random graph models (ERGMs) when a single network realisation is observed. The test determines how likely it is that the observation…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-02 Wenkai Xu , Gesine Reinert

Monte Carlo methods are widely used importance sampling techniques for studying complex physical systems. Integrating these methods with deep learning has significantly improved efficiency and accuracy in high-dimensional problems and…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2024-12-24 Yixiong Ren , Jianhui Zhou

We study a version of the proximal gradient algorithm for which the gradient is intractable and is approximated by Monte Carlo methods (and in particular Markov Chain Monte Carlo). We derive conditions on the step size and the Monte Carlo…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Yves F. Atchade , Gersende Fort , Eric Moulines