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The estimation of normalizing constants is a fundamental step in probabilistic model comparison. Sequential Monte Carlo methods may be used for this task and have the advantage of being inherently parallelizable. However, the standard…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-16 Marco Fraccaro , Ulrich Paquet , Ole Winther

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-23 Benjamin Jourdain , Jérôme Lelong

An important challenge in the field of exponential random graphs (ERGs) is the fitting of non-trivial ERGs on large graphs. By utilizing fast matrix block-approximation techniques, we propose an approximative framework to such non-trivial…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-02-02 Florian Adriaens , Alexandru Mara , Jefrey Lijffijt , Tijl De Bie

The methods of statistical physics are widely used for modelling complex networks. Building on the recently proposed Equilibrium Expectation approach, we derive a simple and efficient algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-12 Alexander Borisenko , Maksym Byshkin , Alessandro Lomi

The presence of unobserved node specific heterogeneity in Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) is a general concern, both with respect to model validity as well as estimation instability. We therefore extend the ERGM by including node…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-24 Sevag Kevork , Göran Kauermann

Online variants of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm have recently been proposed to perform parameter inference with large data sets or data streams, in independent latent models and in hidden Markov models. Nevertheless, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-01 Sylvain Le Corff , Gersende Fort

Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-07 Alexander Lin , Bahareh Tolooshams , Yves Atchadé , Demba Ba

Exponential random graph models are extremely difficult models to handle from a statistical viewpoint, since their normalising constant, which depends on model parameters, is available only in very trivial cases. We show how inference can…

Applications · Statistics 2010-09-30 Alberto Caimo , Nial Friel

The paper demonstrates the use of LASSO-based estimation in network models. Taking the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) as a flexible and widely used model for network data analysis, the paper focuses on the question of how to specify…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Sergio Buttazzo , Göran Kauermann

A new modelling approach for the analysis of weighted networks with ordinal/polytomous dyadic values is introduced. Specifically, it is proposed to model the weighted network connectivity structure using a hierarchical multilayer…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-05 Alberto Caimo , Isabella Gollini

We present two Monte Carlo sampling algorithms for probabilistic inference that guarantee polynomial-time convergence for a larger class of network than current sampling algorithms provide. These new methods are variants of the known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 Malcolm Pradhan , Paul Dagum

The exponential family random graph modeling (ERGM) framework provides a flexible approach for the statistical analysis of networks. As ERGMs typically involve normalizing factors that are costly to compute, practical inference relies on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-12 Fan Yin , Carter T. Butts

We investigate different mean-field-like approximations for stochastic dynamics on graphs, within the framework of a cluster-variational approach. In analogy with its equilibrium counterpart, this approach allows one to give a unified view…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-07-31 Alessandro Pelizzola , Marco Pretti

Exponential-family Random Graph Models (ERGMs) constitute a large statistical framework for modeling sparse and dense random graphs, short- and long-tailed degree distributions, covariates, and a wide range of complex dependencies. Special…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-21 Michael Schweinberger , Pavel N. Krivitsky , Carter T. Butts , Jonathan Stewart

Statistical analysis of social networks provides valuable insights into complex network interactions across various scientific disciplines. However, accurate modeling of networks remains challenging due to the heavy computational burden and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-07-25 Helal El-Zaatari , Fei Yu , Michael R Kosorok

We propose convenient inferential methods for potentially nonstationary multivariate unobserved components models with fractional integration and cointegration. Based on finite-order ARMA approximations in the state space representation,…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-11-10 Tobias Hartl , Roland Weigand

We extend the well-known and widely used Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) by including nodal random effects to compensate for heterogeneity in the nodes of a network. The Bayesian framework for ERGMs proposed by Caimo and Friel (2011)…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-13 Stephanie Thiemichen , Nial Friel , Alberto Caimo , Göran Kauermann

Group-based brain connectivity networks have great appeal for researchers interested in gaining further insight into complex brain function and how it changes across different mental states and disease conditions. Accurately constructing…

Applications · Statistics 2013-03-05 Sean L. Simpson , Malaak N. Moussa , Paul J. Laurienti

This paper presents a detailed theoretical analysis of the three stochastic approximation proximal gradient algorithms proposed in our companion paper [49] to set regularization parameters by marginal maximum likelihood estimation. We prove…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-14 Valentin De Bortoli , Alain Durmus , Ana F. Vidal , Marcelo Pereyra

The EM algorithm is a powerful tool for maximum likelihood estimation with missing data. In practice, the calculations required for the EM algorithm are often intractable. We review numerous methods to circumvent this intractability, all of…

Computation · Statistics 2024-01-03 William Ruth