Related papers: A Dirichlet Mixture Model of Hawkes Processes for …
Asynchronous event sequence clustering aims to group similar event sequences in an unsupervised manner. Mixture models of temporal point processes have been proposed to solve this problem, but they often suffer from overfitting, leading to…
Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…
Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…
This paper proposes a new meta-learning method -- named HARMLESS (HAwkes Relational Meta LEarning method for Short Sequences) for learning heterogeneous point process models from short event sequence data along with a relational network.…
Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…
The Bayesian approach to inference stands out for naturally allowing borrowing information across heterogeneous populations, with different samples possibly sharing the same distribution. A popular Bayesian nonparametric model for…
To identify novel dynamic patterns of gene expression, we develop a statistical method to cluster noisy measurements of gene expression collected from multiple replicates at multiple time points, with an unknown number of clusters. We…
As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract…
Many real-world applications require robust algorithms to learn point processes based on a type of incomplete data --- the so-called short doubly-censored (SDC) event sequences. We study this critical problem of quantitative asynchronous…
Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…
We develop a Bayesian framework for tackling the supervised clustering problem, the generic problem encountered in tasks such as reference matching, coreference resolution, identity uncertainty and record linkage. Our clustering model is…
Dirichlet process mixtures are flexible non-parametric models, particularly suited to density estimation and probabilistic clustering. In this work we study the posterior distribution induced by Dirichlet process mixtures as the sample size…
Statistical modelling in the presence of data organized in groups is a crucial task in Bayesian statistics. The present paper conceives a mixture model based on a novel family of Bayesian priors designed for multilevel data and obtained by…
Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…
This paper presents a novel algorithm, based upon the dependent Dirichlet process mixture model (DDPMM), for clustering batch-sequential data containing an unknown number of evolving clusters. The algorithm is derived via a low-variance…
People are increasingly relying on the Web and social media to find solutions to their problems in a wide range of domains. In this online setting, closely related problems often lead to the same characteristic learning pattern, in which…
Forecast combination integrates information from various sources by consolidating multiple forecast results from the target time series. Instead of the need to select a single optimal forecasting model, this paper introduces a deep learning…
The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…
Marked point process data arise when events occur in a space with event-level marks. We study clustering of replicated marked Poisson point processes and introduce Dirichlet process mixtures of marked Poisson point processes, a Bayesian…
We present an approach to model-based hierarchical clustering by formulating an objective function based on a Bayesian analysis. This model organizes the data into a cluster hierarchy while specifying a complex feature-set partitioning that…