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Due to its clustering and self-exciting properties, the Hawkes process has been used extensively in numerous fields ranging from sismology to finance. Since data is often aquired on regular time intervals, we propose a piece-wise constant…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-28 Lorick Huang , Mahmoud Khabou

Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-04 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

We develop methods for efficient amortized approximate Bayesian inference over posterior distributions of probabilistic clustering models, such as Dirichlet process mixture models. The approach is based on mapping distributed,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-27 Ari Pakman , Liam Paninski

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Fuqing Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

Temporal networks observed continuously over time through timestamped relational events data are commonly encountered in application settings including online social media communications, financial transactions, and international relations.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-29 Lingfei Zhao , Hadeel Soliman , Kevin S. Xu , Subhadeep Paul

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alba Bernabeu , Jorge Mateu

As a kind of basic machine learning method, clustering algorithms group data points into different categories based on their similarity or distribution. We present a clustering algorithm by finding hyper-planes to distinguish the data…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-04-28 Luhong Diao , Jinying Gao1 , Manman Deng

We propose an exact slice sampler for Hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) and its associated mixture models (Teh et al., 2006). Although there are existing MCMC algorithms for sampling from the HDP, a slice sampler has been missing from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-22 Arash A. Amini , Marina Paez , Lizhen Lin , Zahra S. Razaee

We propose a new sparse Granger-causal learning framework for temporal event data. We focus on a specific class of point processes called the Hawkes process. We begin by pointing out that most of the existing sparse causal learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Tsuyoshi Idé , Georgios Kollias , Dzung T. Phan , Naoki Abe

We present a method that models the evolution of an unbounded number of time series clusters by switching among an unknown number of regimes with linear dynamics. We develop a Bayesian non-parametric approach using a hierarchical Dirichlet…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-09 Adrián Pérez-Herrero , Paulo Félix , Jesús Presedo , Carl Henrik Ek

This chapter provides an accessible introduction for point processes, and especially Hawkes processes, for modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time. We start by reviewing the definitions and the key concepts in point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-10 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Young Lee , Swapnil Mishra , Lexing Xie

We derive explicit, closed-form expressions for the cumulant densities of a multivariate, self-exciting Hawkes point process, generalizing a result of Hawkes in his earlier work on the covariance density and Bartlett spectrum of such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-08 Stojan Jovanović , John Hertz , Stefan Rotter

We propose Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) models for prediction and cluster-wise variable selection, based on two choices of shrinkage baseline prior distributions for the linear regression coefficients, namely the Horseshoe prior and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-26 Dawei Ding , George Karabatsos

Recent advances in engineering technologies have enabled the collection of a large number of longitudinal features. This wealth of information presents unique opportunities for researchers to investigate the complex nature of diseases and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-27 Zihang Lu , Noirrit Kiran Chandra

Bayesian models offer great flexibility for clustering applications---Bayesian nonparametrics can be used for modeling infinite mixtures, and hierarchical Bayesian models can be utilized for sharing clusters across multiple data sets. For…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-15 Brian Kulis , Michael I. Jordan

In this paper, we consider the task of clustering a set of individual time series while modeling each cluster, that is, model-based time series clustering. The task requires a parametric model with sufficient flexibility to describe the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Ryohei Umatani , Takashi Imai , Kaoru Kawamoto , Shutaro Kunimasa

In model-based-clustering mixture models are used to group data points into clusters. A useful concept introduced for Gaussian mixtures by Malsiner Walli et al (2016) are sparse finite mixtures, where the prior distribution on the weight…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-23 Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter , Gertraud Malsiner-Walli

DP-means clustering was obtained as an extension of $K$-means clustering. While it is implemented with a simple and efficient algorithm, it can estimate the number of clusters simultaneously. However, DP-means is specifically designed for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-26 Masahiro Kobayashi , Kazuho Watanabe

In this paper, we establish a large deviations principle for a multivariate compound process induced by a multivariate Hawkes process with random marks. Our proof hinges on showing essential smoothness of the limiting cumulant of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-29 Raviar S. Karim , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel R. H. Mandjes

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-23 Yuankang Zhao , Matthew Engelhard
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